A-Infos (en) Italy, UCADI, #212 - Political Observatory (ca, de, it, pt, tr)[machine translation]

UKRAINE: THE DIASPORA ---- The war has halved Ukraine's resident 
population, which, according to the country's polling agencies, 
fluctuates between 18 and 20 million and is experiencing a rapid rate of 
demographic decline . The war, as is well known, has depopulated the 
country, while the need for conscription is growing. This is 
demonstrated by the government's use of "bussification" (forced and 
violent conscription) to fuel the front. In this context, the Ukrainian 
diaspora assumes importance, with the prospect of drawing on it to 
repopulate what will remain of the Ukrainian state when the war ends.
Historical emigration has been directed primarily to Canada, which is 
home to the second largest Ukrainian diaspora in the world after Russia, 
estimated at approximately 1.3 million people (about 4% of the 
population), while the United States records the presence of hundreds of 
thousands of Americans of Ukrainian origin, concentrated primarily in 
states such as New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and New Jersey. This 
immigration began in the late 19th century, and the first wave consisted 
of farmers drawn to the fertile lands of western provinces, such as 
Alberta and Manitoba, giving rise to politically influential 
communities, active in preserving their language and traditions, 
strengthened by membership in the Orthodox and Greek-Catholic Churches. 
This first wave was joined by a second, nationalist-oriented one fueled 
by postwar displaced persons who rejected the country's accession to the 
USSR. They formed a strong association, created language schools and 
cultural centers, and provided the breeding ground for Orthodox Churches 
alternative to the canonical Ukrainian Orthodox Church, linked to the 
Moscow Patriarchate.
Russia is home to the largest portion of the Ukrainian diaspora, which 
has grown since the start of the special operation to over 8 million, 
demonstrating that the conflict in Ukraine is also a civil war. Only a 
small portion has taken refuge in the United States, Canada, and South 
America. Around 6 million have made their way to Western Europe and are 
now reconsidering their residence, pressured by populations' growing 
refusal to welcome them and, above all, by Western governments' decision 
to deny them admission and send back to their countries for conscription 
all those who, if present, would be drafted into the army.
Many of them are therefore leaving Poland en masse for Germany, the 
Czech Republic, and other EU countries, RMF24 reports, citing Eurostat 
data. In July alone, the number of Ukrainians under temporary protection 
in Poland decreased by 8,100, reaching 953,100. In June, the decrease 
was a further 6,300. The Czech Republic is becoming an increasingly 
popular destination for Ukrainians: at the end of June, approximately 
381,000 people lived there. The largest number of Ukrainians are in 
Germany, with approximately 1.29 million people, where they are causing 
considerable problems (see elections in Saxony-Anhalt) because they 
receive state benefits and this is no longer financially sustainable. 
Significant numbers of Ukrainians are in Spain (272,300), Romania 
(219,400), and Slovakia (149,000).
The figures reported are official figures, as the actual number of 
refugees is much higher. These are people who fill the illegal labor 
market or live on the margins of legality, bringing the total number to 
around 6 million. It goes without saying that the longer the war lasts, 
the longer they remain outside the country, and the stronger the roots 
migrants create in their host countries.

GREAT BRITAIN

On September 14, the leaders of the pro-independence parties Scottish 
National Party (SNP), Plaid Cymru (Wales), and Sinn Féin (Northern 
Ireland) met in Cardiff. They favor separation from the United Kingdom, 
but have differing positions on how and when this could happen . While 
the Irish want reunification with the Irish Republic, the other two 
regional states intend to join the European Union and separate their 
fate from England. A memorandum was signed and sent to the Westminster 
Parliament in which the three party leaders solemnly declare: "Our 
nations have the right to self-determination. No government has the 
right to block democracy or undermine the principle that our peoples 
will decide their own future." That said, the three leaders are calling 
for referendums to ensure that their respective peoples decide their future.
Following Labour's defeat in the Welsh elections in May, for the first 
time in the history of the United Kingdom, all three nations seeking 
self-determination are led by pro-independence parties. In Wales, Plaid 
Cymru became the largest party in the Senedd, and its leader Rhun ap 
Iorwerth took over as First Minister. In Scotland, John Swinney's SNP 
consolidated its lead at Holyrood, despite losing six seats to Reform 
and the Greens. In Belfast, Michelle O'Neill leads the government after 
Sinn Féin's victory in 2022, with the inauguration postponed to 2024 due 
to obstruction by the DUP. Sitting with them in Cardiff was Mary Lou 
McDonald, president of Sinn Féin and leader of the opposition in the 
Dublin Dáil (Parliament).
Strengthened by the majorities they had acquired in their respective 
states, the three leaders seized on the reckless statement made by 
British Prime Minister Andy Burnham on Wednesday 9 September during 
Question Time in the Commons regarding the possibility of holding a new 
referendum in Scotland, given a "clear consensus" in favour. Burnham 
added that there were also grounds for a vote on separation in Northern 
Ireland, given that it was "exactly the same situation", and they took 
advantage of this to launch the challenge.
Indeed, the Good Friday Agreement (which ended the war between Catholics 
and Protestants in Belfast) provides a path to a referendum on Irish 
reunification, to be held if "it appears likely" that a majority of 
Northern Irish people vote to leave the United Kingdom. But applying the 
same criteria to Scotland effectively means recognizing an automatic 
mechanism where until now there has been only political discretion. The 
reasons for this gaffe by the Prime Minister appear to be simply the 
consequence of a failure to read the dossier prepared by the offices, 
which led him to use the position on Ireland in Scotland and that on 
Scotland in Ireland.
Burnham attempted to make amends with a letter sent Thursday to Swinney, 
in which he defines a new Scottish referendum as "off-limits" before the 
next general election. There is, he writes, "no consensus for a 
referendum on independence in Scotland, nor any clear basis for claiming 
that a majority of Northern Irish people currently wish to secede from 
the United Kingdom," and he recalls the platform with which Labour won 
in 2024: "Labour does not support independence or another referendum." 
But now the buck has been made! Especially since the Trump 
administration immediately took advantage of the situation, desperately 
seeking votes for the Midterm elections, and was thrilled to support the 
right to a referendum to curry favor with Irish Americans.
For their part, the three party leaders, after stating that the 
country's political climate is changing, declared that Westminster's 
time has come to an end. The three prime ministers' coordinated move 
aims to exert direct political pressure on Downing Street, effectively 
demanding that it recognize the legitimacy of referendums or legislative 
paths to independence. Some leaders, like Swinney, have even hinted that 
Burnham could be the last prime minister of a United Kingdom, signaling 
a political narrative openly geared toward the progressive dissolution 
of the current state structure.
What is happening could accelerate a gradual but irreversible 
transformation: increasingly close energy and economic agreements 
between Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland could herald a post-UK 
status, pushing Westminster toward radical federal reform or a 
"consensual dissolution" of Great Britain with staggered referendums. 
The road is still long and winding, but a period of intense 
constitutional tension is opening up that could mark the end of the 
United Kingdom's role as continental Europe's eternal enemy, given that 
all three aspiring independent states intend to join the EU.

SWEDEN

It took four days of counting to determine that the center-left 
coalition led by Magdalena Andersson had won the Swedish elections by 
just 50,359 votes, defeating the center-right coalition led by outgoing 
Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson. According to the final results, the 
victory was a narrow margin . The delay was due to postal votes, early 
votes, and votes from abroad. The four parties that comprise it obtained 
a total of 49.6% of the vote and 176 seats, compared to the 48.8% and 
173 seats won by the four right-wing parties. The Social Democrats, led 
by Magdalena Andersson, remained the party with the highest support in 
parliament with 28.1%. In second place were the center-right moderates 
led by outgoing Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson.
Kristersson, with 19.9%, and the nationalist right-wing Sweden Democrats 
(SD), is the third largest force with 17.6%.
The final outcome of the vote, which saw a very high turnout, was 
influenced by the decline of Åkesson's nationalist right-wing coalition. 
After uninterrupted growth in every election since entering Parliament 
in 2010, it lost several percentage points compared to 2022, a result 
that has led to speculation of a reversal of the electorate's 
orientation. However, the center-left coalition is extremely 
heterogeneous: it includes the Social Democrats, the Greens, the 
Centrists, and the Left Party. The latter two parties are divided on 
virtually everything, from the economy (the former are liberals, the 
latter are Marxists) to immigration policies.
Ulf Kristersson resigned from office after the official results 
confirmed the defeat of his bloc. Magdalena Andersson, who served as 
prime minister between 2021 and 2022, returns to lead the government 
after four years in opposition. The Speaker of the Riksdag (Parliament) 
will task her with forming a new government. Her task, however, is 
extremely difficult, not only because of the narrow difference in votes 
between the two parties, but also because of the composition of the 
coalition that won the election. The left-wing Dadgostar party, in 
particular, is strongly committed to supporting the Palestinian cause 
and wants to review immigration policies, which it considers extremely 
restrictive, to the point of being accused of anti-Semitism. This makes 
it difficult for the centrists to co-govern.
Faced with this situation, Andersson appears to be opting for a grand 
coalition, excluding the Left Party and the Sweden Democrats, who, 
however, have double the number of seats as the former, thanks to nearly 
18% of the vote, and are closely tied to the Liberals. At the moment, 
the moderate right-wing parties do not appear to be willing to accept 
such a proposal. Moreover, the failed German example is so clear to see 
that many political analysts in Stockholm are already wondering when 
Sweden will be called back to the polls. According to observers, forming 
a government could require weeks, if not months, of negotiations. Among 
the issues the government must address are immigration, public 
healthcare, the rising cost of living, and security-issues that have 
dominated one of the most polarized election campaigns in Sweden in decades.

BRICS

The twenty-fifth BRICS summit, chaired by India, was held on September 
14 in New Delhi, marking a rapprochement between India and China. 
Strengthened by the discredit accumulated by the United States in the 
war with Iran , China managed to convince India of the inconsistency of 
US promises, persuading it on the one hand to back down from accepting 
Trump's demands to stop purchasing Russian oil, and on the other to seek 
a settlement of the open dispute with China through bilateral relations, 
regardless of US support. Furthermore, Xi Jinping offered his personal 
services for the first time as a mediator between the parties to resolve 
the ongoing crises, even though these conflicts cannot be resolved 
without a solution found on the battlefield.
From the summit, China emerged as a stabilizing force in international 
relations, while not positioning itself as a hegemonic force, and this 
is because it wants to leave room for the development of relations 
between different countries and for a multipolar and multicentric 
balance, within a post-US stabilization framework.
The BRICS confirms its role as neither an alliance nor an alternative to 
the US, but rather a platform where a variety of parties can negotiate 
and regulate their mutual relations. On September 24, we will know, 
after Trump's meeting in Washington, how much this mediation will cost 
the United States; it cannot be ruled out that the discussions will 
continue on the sidelines of the APEC summit , scheduled for November 18 
and 19 in Beijing. The possibility had already been discussed by Putin 
and Xi Jinping during their meeting on August 31 in Bishkek at the SCO 
meeting.
Obviously, both von der Stupid and the willing, as well as Zelensky, 
will be excluded from the meeting, proving their irrelevance. Certainly, 
the legacy that von der Stupid's second term leaves the European Union 
is irrelevance, which will certainly be difficult to recover from.

ALBANIA

The issue of the settlement of Israeli-American "investors" on Sazan, an 
island off the coast of Albania, protecting the Bay of Vlora, poses a 
serious threat to control of the Strait of Otranto and must rightfully 
be placed within the ongoing war of the straits . Its occurrence must be 
linked to Hormus and the Strait of Bab al-Mandab, controlled by the 
Huthis in Ceuta, which Morocco is demanding, at the suggestion of the 
Israeli-Americans, and constitutes an initiative aimed at controlling 
traffic in the Adriatic ports, recipients of trade to and from Turkey. 
Who will prevent the owners of the island, which has all the equipment 
of a naval base for submarines, from deploying the deterrent necessary 
to block it there?
If Edi Rama is selling off Albanian sovereignty to the highest bidder, 
whether for money or political strategy, by exploiting his country, it's 
unclear. Italy cannot do the same. Rather than supporting the war in 
Ukraine, it should focus its resources and attention on these kinds of 
problems, avoiding being colonized through projects like the so-called 
"Israeli colony in Salento," a real estate initiative conceived by 
entrepreneur Orit Lev Marom, or with her consent, which, not 
coincidentally, was supposed to be located on the coast overlooking the 
island of Sazan.

YEMEN

The Yemeni Houthis have rapidly advanced along the entire Red Sea coast 
up to the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb, as well as the island of Mayun. They 
are threatening to occupy the city of Ma'rib, which, like Mocha, would 
come under their control after negotiations with local tribal groups . 
Meanwhile, the Houthis are entrenching themselves to defend the occupied 
territory from a possible Saudi return, but it is not excluded that they 
could continue towards the conquest of the port of Aden. This 
development is a direct consequence of the weakening of Saudi Arabia and 
the United Arab Emirates, due to the outcome of the Gulf War. Both 
support the internationally recognized government in Aden. Saudi Arabia 
has unsuccessfully appealed for help from the United States, already 
overly involved in the war. Great Britain, long-standing in its interest 
in controlling Aden, has limited itself to sending a tanker plane to 
refuel Saudi fighter jets in mid-air, while Italy has agreed to deploy 
several aircraft based in Taif and a contingent of 400 men, whether to 
provide military advisors or logistical support to the launchers is 
unknown. The stated objective is to protect Italian ships not threatened 
by the Houthis, but in reality, this represents Saudi Arabia's support 
for a war, without a parliamentary vote to do so. The Houthis have 
politely demanded accountability for this behavior, recalling that they 
did not threaten Italian ships.
The profound economic crisis into which the Gulf countries have fallen 
and the success of the Houthis, Iran's allies, strengthen Iran's 
proposal for a meeting between regional countries to be held in Oman to 
align mutual interests and regulate passage through the Straits of 
Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, excluding the United States.

GREENLAND

Trump appears to have succeeded in closing one of his open fronts, that 
of Greenland . On the sidelines of the UN General Assembly meeting in 
New York, an agreement was signed between Washington, Copenhagen, and 
Nuuk that "grants the United States permanent control over the security 
and other needs of Greenland that fully addresses our many concerns." 
The agreement renders formal Danish control of Greenland superfluous and 
gives the United States full discretion over all decisions regarding the 
island, with the aim of preventing the alleged intention of China and/or 
Russia to establish a military presence there. In this way, the United 
States secures preemptive rights, both now and in the future, over the 
exploitation of the island's mineral resources. In the immediate future, 
the agreement aims to strengthen the US presence along the Northern Sea 
Route, which is expected to expand with the progressive melting of the 
ice, and over which Russia and Canada maintain a very strong grip, 
significantly impacting Chinese trade, access to natural resources, and 
strategic investments.
An examination of the agreement's text will reveal exactly what has 
changed compared to today, given that Washington already had extensive 
military rights in Greenland, which it used as an outpost to spot 
missile attacks from Russia. A defense agreement, signed with Denmark in 
1951, and subsequently updated, allowed the United States to maintain 
military installations on the island: this agreement does not have an 
expiration date.
In reality, much of Greenland's strategic importance has diminished with 
the entry into service of the Russian nuclear-powered cruise missile, 
the 9M730 Burevestnik, with a theoretically unlimited range, permanently 
in flight, while economic reasons remain.

RUSSIA

State Duma elections have been held in Russia. United Russia: 355 
deputies; Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF): 40 deputies; 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR): 25 deputies; New Leaders (NL): 20 
deputies; Social Democratic Party (SR): 4 deputies (they still have a 
chance of winning a seat in the State Duma); Rodina: 1 deputy . This was 
announced by Pompilova, chairwoman of the election committee. After 
United Russia, the Communist Party came in second with 14.2% (20% from 
abroad). According to the Central Election Commission, voter turnout in 
the three days of voting was 58% higher than the 51.7% recorded in the 
previous election in 2021. Intense Ukrainian drone strikes appear to 
have prompted Muscovites, especially Muscovites, to turn out en masse. 
Economic growth also appears to have boosted voter turnout.
Many of those elected are former veterans who fought in Ukraine, 
suggesting that the measures the government will adopt to prosecute the 
conflict will be approved by a large majority in the Duma, imposing 
greater firmness and assertiveness on Putin himself in waging the war. 
It is likely that the country, feeling under attack, will demand less 
flexibility, reinforcing demands for greater commitment to waging the 
war. The high voter turnout brings with it a demand for stability and 
the extent of the existential nature of this war for Russia.

The Editorial Staff

https://www.ucadi.org/2026/09/29/osservatorio-politico-13/
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