A-Infos (en) Italy, UCADI, #205 - Iran: A Litmus Test (ca, de, it, pt, tr)[machine translation]

With the Venezuela issue resolved, at least in Trump's world, the Iran 
issue has resurfaced, because it's now clear that POTUS is (sur)viving 
on fake solutions, such as the end of the Gaza war or the one between 
Thailand and Cambodia, as well as, indeed, the 12-13 day war with Iran, 
when Trump claimed to have annihilated Iran's nuclear capabilities 
thanks to the bombing of the uranium enrichment sites in Fordow and 
Isfahan in June 2025. In reality, the fighting ended more as a favor to 
Israel, whose territory had been heavily hit for the first time, than 
because the truce represented a real solution (a bit like a stunned 
boxer who asks the referee for time to regain his strength).
The nuclear issue wasn't the key issue, much less so is drug smuggling 
in connection with Venezuela. The underlying problem is that the US is 
losing global control and must make moves to secure at least control of 
key countries. Venezuela is part of its backyard, and what's more, it 
dared to export oil to China and Cuba. Iran, on the other hand, is part 
of the Middle East, the hunting ground of its super-ally, Israel, which 
feels threatened by Iran and has the resources, thanks to the weight of 
the enormous Zionist lobby in the US, to threaten retaliation even 
against Trump. Netanyahu has dictated four necessary conditions for him 
to accept an agreement with Iran: (i) zero uranium enrichment; (ii) no 
missiles with a range greater than 300 km; (iii) severing contact with 
friendly groups (e.g., Hezbollah, Hamas, etc.); (iv) disarmament of Hamas.
Given these conditions, there is no possibility of a negotiated 
agreement, because accepting them would imply Iran abdicating its 
sovereignty; it would be like saying: we disarm because otherwise you 
will attack us. Furthermore, let's remember that the Treaty on the 
Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons allows the use of uranium enriched 
to a certain level, if only for medical purposes. It's ridiculous that 
the media refuses to mention that this request comes from a country that 
has NOT even signed the Treaty (despite possessing atomic bombs). In 
reality, the condition most pressing to the genocidaires is the 
elimination of long-range missiles, and it doesn't take a genius to 
understand why.

In truth, there would be a simpler and better solution for the empire: 
regime change, as Trump has repeatedly stated. The recent unrest in Iran 
is an example of the preferred strategy of the near-Nobel Peace Prize 
winner, Donald J. Trump.

Analyzing the December events in detail, we cannot deny that they were 
partly the consequence of misguided Iranian domestic policies, but there 
is no doubt that we are also facing external provocations that are 
strongly reminiscent of the Arab Spring and the Maidan movement in Ukraine.
In fact, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly boasted that the 
various sanctions imposed on Iran had put the Persian economy in 
difficulty. Add to this that the final straw was a financial maneuver 
against the Rial, which forced the Iranian central bank to devalue it. 
The plan was precisely to overthrow the government under the pressure of 
a popular uprising. It was quickly discovered that the first to shoot 
were the rioters, killing hundreds of law enforcement officials, who 
only later intervened, responding with fire. Just for comparison, let's 
try to imagine what ICE in the United States would have done if one of 
their representatives were killed.
The outcome of the uprising, however, was not the desired one, and thus 
the Armada (a name, I hope, appropriate, recalling the end of the 
Spanish Armada) appears. Let's analyze the possible future scenario. I 
believe it's clear to Trump (perhaps the only thing he's clear about) 
that he can't afford a war lasting longer than a couple of weeks. He 
pitched himself to his voters, and won the election, presenting himself 
as someone who doesn't want endless wars and who wants to appeal to the 
very impoverished middle class. Considering that midterm elections are 
at the end of the year, further military involvement would be 
disastrous; there's already Ukraine, which had to be closed in 24 hours, 
and it can't be closed like Saigon or Kabul, or it would be a political 
debacle for the man (and let's not underestimate the way the Epstein 
affair is being handled-regardless of the direct involvement of the 
POTUS). Add to this the military aspect: once all the Armada's Tomahawks 
have been launched, or the anti-missile missiles they will be forced to 
fire, there will be a need for supplies that can only be achieved by 
temporarily sending the Armada to distant bases.
So the operation must be quick: the ideal would be to remake the 
Venezuelan solution. This is not easy; the Iranians not only saw what 
was done and will have taken countermeasures, but they also remember 
what happened to them in June 2025, when the airstrike arrived during 
negotiations (a trademark of the award-winning US-Israel-Ukraine alliance).
In practice, has anything changed since June for both sides? On the 
Iranian front, there are reports of significant aid from China and 
Russia. In the 12/13-day war, Iran was caught by surprise not only 
because they weren't expecting an attack at that specific moment, but 
also because they didn't have the tools to detect the arrival of 
aircraft in time.
Meanwhile, Iran has installed an integrated Chinese system based on the 
new YLC8B radar, which, operating at low frequencies, is capable of 
detecting stealth aircraft up to 700 km away, allowing for the 
implementation of appropriate countermeasures. The military response can 
be managed in real time, thanks to integration with the Bei Dou network 
of Chinese satellites (which replace GPS and are also more precise, 
being of the new generation). Incidentally, Chinese organizations have 
released images of the American bases in Diego Garcia and Qatar (Al 
Udeid), where recently arrived THAAD missiles are clearly visible: a 
clear warning that they know what the Americans are doing and are also 
able to provide the coordinates for a possible immediate launch of 
Iranian missiles.
Today, it's unclear whether this integrated network will function 
perfectly, but there are reasons to believe that Iran will have a much 
better chance of responding or even blocking a first strike than it did 
in June 2025. This Chinese assistance is the result of a coordination 
agreement between the two countries, and China's interest is 
understandable, given that the US is systematically undermining its 
energy supply lines (see Venezuela, but also the ongoing piracy of oil 
tankers in international waters).
The agreement allows Iran access to otherwise encrypted military 
information processed by BeiDou's geostationary satellites, which, among 
other things, being so far away, are virtually immune to jamming, as 
recently happened with Starlink, which were rendered inoperative, 
rendering communications with and between the so-called Iranian 
insurgents ineffective. Added to this is the Chinese reconnaissance 
vessel Da Yang Yi Hao (Ocean One), located just outside the Persian 
Gulf. The vessel is configured as an oceanographic research vessel, but 
it also functions like AWACS aircraft, being able to track nearby 
aircraft and, especially, submarines, as well as intercept messages sent 
in that area. The same vessel appears to be escorted by a pair of 
destroyers. As far as is known, Ocean One is also part of the same 
integrated computer system, which,
incidentally, is similar to Link 17, which allowed Pakistan to 
outmaneuver India in last year's air battles.
Less is known about the aid provided by Russia. There are reports of the 
supply of S400 anti-missile systems, which are highly effective, but 
require expertise that can only be acquired over time, unless they are 
operated directly by previously trained technicians. Other sources 
report hypersonic missiles: the problem is integrating all the weapons 
systems for efficient real-time use.
If Iran has equipped itself to defend itself, what has the US done to 
believe it can succeed?
Apparently little, aside from developing an Armada that is certainly 
very powerful, but perhaps also vulnerable, as demonstrated by last 
year's great US victory over Yemen, during which a Yemeni missile forced 
an aircraft carrier into a rapid maneuver, causing an F14 to crash into 
the sea. In fact, to be relatively safe from missile attacks, an 
aircraft carrier must be stationed about 1,000 kilometers from the 
coast, ultimately making it less lethal than it could be. Finally, among 
the factors Trump must consider is the possible closure of the Strait of 
Hormuz, which, by blocking oil traffic, would lead to a rise in prices 
and cause inflation in the US as well: the last thing Trump wants to see 
during an election period.
Rationally, one might ask: who's making them do it? One factor is the 
enormous arrogance of those in power, the belief that they have many 
more weapons, more powerful weapons than others; but someone should 
point out to them, for example, that the war in Ukraine is slowing down 
the replenishment of weapons stockpiles, almost emptied in last June's war.
In fact, even though the US doesn't spend a dollar supplying weapons to 
Kiev, it sells weapons to the Europeans (who then pass them on to the 
little green ogre), and the bottleneck seems to be weapons production 
(particularly Patriot missiles): too slow in relation to demand. 
Zelensky's recent complaint is precisely linked to the delayed arrival 
of missiles.
So, who's making them do it? Could it be (also) the Zionist lobby? 
Miriam Adelson donated $200 million to Trump for his election: she's the 
one who, along with her husband, in the previous round in 2016 (another 
round, more money), had requested-and obtained-the move of the Israeli 
capital from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Although American, she supports 
Israel First, not America First, and she's not Trump's only financial 
backer (the historic and powerful lobby group AIPAC is among them). In 
short, there are at least $200 million in good reasons to grant 
Netanyahu's wishes. Finally, let's ease the tension by recalling a funny 
episode of censorship from 1979, when the film Life of Brian was 
released, a Monty Python masterpiece that poked fun at (among other 
things) the Christian religion, but also the Jews, except that the key 
scene involving the chosen people was censored (otherwise the film would 
never have been released in the very democratic USA). The scene involved 
Otto the Nazirene, a fanatical Jew with a mustache who preached about 
greater Israel and the need to invade and occupy Samaria (the symbol: a 
Star of David with four hooked outer bars). It was satire and it was 
1979; today it's reality.
We don't know many things; perhaps Trump can change his mind at the last 
minute, but what kind of image would he make internationally? That of a 
bully who threatens but doesn't follow through: a terrible example for 
other opponents, but also for allies who might wake up. Perhaps Trump 
will give the order to intervene and end up trapped in an endless war; 
or perhaps the Americans, thanks to the discombobulator that Trump 
claims allowed special forces to quickly kidnap Maduro, will also be 
able to free Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Antonio Politi

https://www.ucadi.org/2026/03/01/iran-una-cartina-al-tornasole/
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