A-Infos (en) Poland, Poznan FA: Sanctions, Tariffs, and Trade Blockades as Tools of War (ca, de, it, pt, tr)[machine translation]

In interstate rivalries, sanctions, trade wars, and economic blockades 
are crucial tools for escalating conflict. They often end in armed 
conflict, i.e., full-scale war, although it was usually assumed that 
economic pressure would be sufficient to force the opponent to make 
concessions. ----From Moscow to Pearl Harbor ---- Let's give a few 
historical examples. Bonaparte's March on Moscow in 1812, which led to 
the final defeat of his forces and the end of the Napoleonic Wars, was 
linked to the so-called Continental Blockade. Napoleon wanted to impose 
a ban on European states, including Russia, from trading with the 
British Isles. Russia initially agreed, but ultimately refused to comply.

As one historian writes, in 1810, frustration with trade restrictions in 
the Russian Empire reached a peak in the Russian Empire. More 
specifically, this situation most irritated landowners, who had 
previously made large profits trading grain with Western Europe 
(including England). The Continental Blockade closed sea routes. For 
Russian producers, transporting grain to the West by land simply became 
unprofitable. This irritation was compounded by the fact that France did 
not adhere to the Continental Blockade's rules.[1]This is a rather 
typical situation in many wars, during which business continues as 
usual. Furthermore, restrictions and limitations make it even easier to 
make large fortunes, based on the principle that illegality is the most 
profitable. Smuggling and corruption flourished during the Napoleonic Wars.

The Continental Blockade primarily affected the lower classes of British 
society. This was particularly true when French trade restrictions were 
imposed following the poor harvests of 1810-1811. Grain prices rose. As 
a result, numerous social unrests and Luddite protests occurred across 
the British Isles. With Napoleon's permission, French exporters 
benefited, while simultaneously denying access to British markets to 
producers from other countries, including Russia, which happened to be 
experiencing a bountiful harvest. Ultimately, the blockade failed to 
crush Great Britain, in part because the Russian Empire broke away, 
which in turn provoked Napoleon's march on Moscow, which ultimately led 
to Bonaparte's defeat. The blockade proved ineffective in this case, 
although it caused not only economic but also social damage - many 
people simply died of starvation or malnutrition.

Let's move forward a hundred years. This time, the British naval trade 
blockade during World War I prevented Germany from exporting and 
importing goods on a sufficient scale, contributing to the deaths from 
starvation and malnutrition of hundreds of thousands of German citizens. 
Germany was defeated not only militarily but also economically. It 
capitulated at the onset of the German Revolution.

The outbreak of hostilities between the United States and Japan in 
December 1941 was preceded by the imposition of American sanctions, 
intended to force Japan to halt its expansion into Asia. The imposition 
of the oil embargo is often seen as the direct cause of the Japanese 
attack on Pearl Harbor.

Victims of Sanctions
The effectiveness of economic sanctions as a method of pressure is 
questionable. At the same time, they are considered more humane than a 
potential direct confrontation-an open military conflict. However, a 
report published recently by the renowned scientific journal The Lancet 
Global Health. A group of research economists calculated how many people 
suffered as a result of sanctions imposed by the United States and the 
European Union from 1971 to 2021, a period of seemingly relative 
international peace. The findings are shocking. The sanctions killed a 
staggering 28 million people during the years studied! This represented 
an average annual death toll of approximately 564,000. More than half of 
the deaths caused by sanctions were among children under 5 years of age. 
In 2021, the total number of victims is estimated at approximately one 
million[2], and we can assume that under the current circumstances, when 
the trade war has intensified, the number of victims is even higher.

This is because in many cases, sanctions primarily impact (directly or 
indirectly) the healthcare system. They can impede access to essential 
medicines, medical equipment, and even components for life-saving 
procedures. Sanctions can create conditions leading to widespread 
malnutrition and lack of access to energy and clean water. Finally, they 
impede access to humanitarian aid. There is a visible reduction in life 
expectancy (a study published in The Lancet estimates a reduction of 
approximately 1.2 to 1.4 years[2]).

The report published in The Lancet therefore challenges the notion that 
sanctions are a relatively mild form of impact on an adversary. They are 
no less deadly than kinetic warfare. Just look at Israel's long-standing 
economic blockade of Gaza. The situation in Palestine demonstrates the 
ruthless and genocidal nature of economic weapons. Israeli Prime 
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is being prosecuted in The Hague, not for 
instigating a kinetic war, but for using starvation as a weapon.

Double-edged sword
However, sanctions are often double-edged swords. They also affect 
countries that have imposed them on others. The various economic 
restrictions imposed by the European Union and the United States on 
Russia after the annexation of Crimea (in 2014), and then tightened 
after the invasion of Ukraine (in February 2022), have also hit European 
societies, naturally first and foremost the poorest. Because 
unconditional support for Ukraine has become a priority in EU policy, it 
is difficult to assess the economic losses we are suffering as a result. 
Officially, they are claimed to be insignificant, or that any resulting 
costs are "included" in the costs of the war itself.

Losses caused by Russian sanctions, however, should be estimated at at 
least tens of billions of euros annually[3]. There is no doubt that 
rising living expenses caused by inflation and rising energy prices pose 
a significant burden on European citizens, sparking discontent and 
protests in many countries. It is currently impossible to demonstrate 
how this situation affects the number of premature deaths. This is not 
only due to a lack of appropriate research, but the COVID-19 pandemic 
has also been a disruptive factor.

Trade wars are therefore no less deadly than kinetic wars. One stems 
from the other. Both claim many victims and ultimately lead to the 
destruction of entire economic areas.

Finally, let us ask: what is the likely scenario for the next major 
kinetic war? According to some analysts, it will begin with growing 
economic aggression. It will not be limited to US tariffs and the 
Chinese ban on rare earth metal exports. Although we are currently 
observing a kind of ceasefire in the trade war between the superpowers, 
the United States likely ultimately intends to cut China off from the 
dollar-based international exchange system. It will prohibit other 
countries from trading with China, at least by sea, and from settling 
their accounts in American currency. How will Beijing react to this? Who 
will march on whom first? And how many people will ultimately fall 
victim to another global conflict?

Jaroslaw Urbanski

www.rozbrat.org

Footnotes:

[1]Alexander Mikaberidze, "The Napoleonic Wars. Global History," volume 
II, Poznan 2023, pp. 
261-271.[2]https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(25)00189-5/fulltext
[3]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_sanctions_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_war

https://federacja-anarchistyczna.pl/2025/12/22/sankcje-cla-blokady-handlowe-jako-narzedzia-wojny/
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