A-Infos (en) Italy, UCADI #203 - Political Observatory (ca, de, it, pt, tr)[machine translation]

Bulgaria ---- The institutional crisis in Europe's poorest country, 
Bulgaria, continues; for the eighth consecutive year, the government has 
resigned, and a difficult crisis looms, possibly leading to a recourse 
to the polls. Following street protests led primarily by Generation Z, 
the country's youth, inspired by the anti-corruption movement used as a 
rallying cry in Balkan countries and used by forces inspired by those 
directing EU policy in Brussels, hundreds of thousands of people took to 
the streets and squares. The protests primarily involved the middle 
class, affected by the contents of next year's budget law, which 
includes a tax increase on corporate profits and higher contribution 
thresholds for workers, along with new centralized procedures for cash 
flow management. Concerns surrounding the country's introduction of the 
euro, with accession to the European Monetary System scheduled for 
January 1 of this year, have further exacerbated the situation. Given 
previous experiences with this in other countries, there are fears that 
the exchange rate will lead to further price increases, to the detriment 
of the population and the benefit of speculators.
Especially in the capital, Sofia, protesters (approximately 150,000) 
have called for the resignation of Rosen Zhelyazkov's center-right 
government, which has been in office for a year. Zhelyazkov preempted a 
parliamentary vote from which it would likely have emerged unscathed 
once again, deeming it more appropriate to hold elections. From 
experience, he knows well that while protesters' chambers manage to 
prepare in the streets, when it comes to voting and addressing the 
country's core population, the orientations can be different. The 
clienteles that link the parties to the lower strata of the country's 
population are too broad. The head of the ruling party, GERB Boyko 
Borisov, the mastermind of Bulgarian politics for the last 15 years and 
the main target of public outrage, is also counting on the support of 
Delyan Peevski's Turkish minority party to turn things around.
As is standard practice, following the resignation, the President of the 
Republic initiated a process of election, open to active involvement in 
the country's politics. Consultations have been launched to form a new 
government, which would address the difficult economic situation created 
in the country by sanctions against Russia, the interruption of 
affordable gas supplies, and the loss of the Russian market. The 
Bulgarian Parliament approved the resignation with 127 votes in favor, 
and the Cabinet will now continue to function until a new government is 
elected. President Rumen Radev has already called on parliamentary 
groups to form a new government. If they fail-which is likely-he will 
appoint an interim government to govern the country until new elections.
However, whoever wins the election is unlikely to be able to stem 
widespread corruption, an inefficient administration, and a stalemated 
and familist political system, as an overhaul of the entire political 
system would be necessary. While it's true that Bulgaria has experienced 
a positive economic trend in recent years: GDP grew by 3.4% in 2024, and 
a stable increase of around 3% is expected for the period 2025-27. 
Economic growth, however, has been accompanied by a sharp increase in 
prices and public spending: all issues that have exacerbated social and 
economic tensions between various sectors of Bulgarian society.
Now the decision is up to the voters, who will again be called to the 
polls for early elections, the eighth starting in 2021, and it's 
difficult to predict the possible outcomes of the crisis.

Putin's Visit to India

One of the recurring features of the propaganda fed to the public as a 
result of the pro-Ukrainian propaganda policy conducted by the press 
serving supporters of the conflict is that sanctions against Russia 
would isolate the country and cause damage to its economy. If there's 
one country for which this isn't true, it's India.
A case in point is Putin's visit to India in early November, prepared by 
Trump, who imposed additional 25% tariffs on Indian imports starting in 
August 2025, bringing the total tariffs on fashion, textiles, jewelry, 
and goldsmiths to 50% overall, to sanction oil purchases from Russia. 
Rather than exerting pressure on India, the measure fostered further 
rapprochement between Moscow and New Delhi, who were already 
coordinating their policies within the BRICS.
During Vladimir Putin's visit, which was greeted triumphantly and 
cordially, numerous agreements were signed in the economic, military, 
scientific, cultural, and technological fields, including the provision 
of Indian labor to Russia (1 million skilled workers). Particular 
attention was paid to the energy, oil, and defense sectors.
Specific discussions included increasing Indian imports of Russian oil, 
cooperation in civil nuclear power and the supply of power plants by 
Russia, and the need to reduce the debt and trade deficit between the 
two countries by allowing greater Indian exports to Russia of 
pharmaceutical and agricultural products. Indian workers willing to work 
in Russia will aid Russia's development and contribute their remittances 
to the payment for energy supplies, which will be paid in rubles. The 
two countries' cooperation will also extend to the fields of culture, 
scientific research, and communications.
Even more significant is the defense agreement, with Russia's commitment 
to supply India with S-400 missile defense systems and next-generation 
fighters. These will help bind India to the provision of technical 
assistance and spare parts for the maintenance of its air force and 
defense forces, deepening the collaboration already developed through 
joint military exercises. Russia will also provide India with a 
nuclear-powered submarine to train its navy's sailors in the operation 
of such vessels, while India will make its shipyards available to Russia 
for the construction of ships for civilian use as well. It should be 
noted that with the decentralization of production, India has become one 
of the world's largest steel producers.
The two sides have committed to regulating their economic relations in 
national currencies. The strength of ties between the two countries was 
underscored by the signing of a joint declaration emphasizing the 
growing solidarity between the two countries and the coordination of 
their policies. It is noteworthy that this visit comes after four years 
and was intended to renew and strengthen the historic friendship between 
the two countries, demonstrating the good relations between the Asian 
powers of Russia, India, and China, as well as the good relations with 
the global south and the strengthening of the partnership.

Netherlands

Negotiations between the parties continue after the October elections. 
On November 10, 2025, following a motion presented by D66 leader Jetten, 
Parliament has appointed Rianne Letschert as the new informant to lead 
the negotiations that should lead to the formation of the new 
government, granting her 51 days to form the new coalition with the 
participation of the 66 CDA and VVD. She must report on the results of 
the negotiations to the House of Representatives by Friday, January 30.
This is the mandate given to Letschert based on a motion that D66 leader 
Jetten presented to the House of Representatives on Wednesday. Letschert 
must initially ensure that D66, CDA, and VVD reach an agreement, but 
also verify whether a minority government, such as one formed by the 
three parties, has any chance of receiving approval from both chambers.
"Our mandate is to seek constructive cooperation with the various 
parties in this chamber," Jetten stated in the motion. "The outstretched 
hand remains both to the left and the right." Granting the mandate to 
form a minority government is compatible with Letschert's resume (born 
1976). She is president of the board of governors of Maastricht 
University and a former professor of international law at Tilburg 
University. A member of D66, she has never held political or 
government-related positions. She will lead the talks between Jetten of 
D66, Henri Bontenbal (CDA), and Dilan Yesilgöz (VVD) for a coalition 
agreement to form a new government.
The program discussion covers issues such as immigration, housing, 
nitrogen emissions-produced primarily by livestock manure, to such an 
extent that they pollute the air, soil, and water-defense, and security. 
These discussions will form the basis for the meeting with Wilders' VVD, 
which, for its part, fears severe cuts in healthcare and development 
funding; D66 and CDA differ with the VVD regarding these funding issues.
The new minority government will have to seek votes in Parliament one by 
one and therefore address the concerns of other parties, such as those 
of SP leader Jimmy Dijk, who fears the dismantling of social security, 
cuts to unemployment benefits (WW), reform of the WIA (Work and Income 
according to Capacity for Work) system, and reductions in dismissal 
protections. Further concerns are being expressed by right-wing parties, 
which eroded Wilders's support in the last elections and are now 
demanding compensation, especially regarding immigration, to secure 
their votes. In this situation, it will be extremely difficult to find a 
compromise and create a new government capable of ensuring the country's 
stability, which is required by the economic crisis the Netherlands is 
experiencing.

Chile

The xenophobic Nazi, José Antonio Kast, wins the runoff with 58% of the 
vote against left-wing candidate Jeanette Jara, who stands at 41%. 
Despite being defeated three times in his previous attempts to become 
President, this time the Nazi exponent succeeded because he garnered the 
votes of the three right-wing candidates in the first round. In his 
election campaign, the newly elected President focused on the typical 
themes of Trumpian propaganda: security and illegal immigration.
The theme of "security" is in many ways a induced and politically 
exploited psychosis: Chile is among the safest countries in all of Latin 
America, but the right has cleverly shifted the political debate onto 
these issues, using the growing presence of Venezuelan gangs and the 
rising homicide rate to support those who promised an iron fist against 
crime and illegal immigration. Indeed, Kast has proposed closing the 
borders since taking office.
By electing a known supporter of dictator Pinochet, the majority of the 
Chilean electorate has clearly demonstrated that 35 years of one of the 
longest and bloodiest dictatorships in the world have not been enough 
and that Chile is ready to see one of the most staunch defenders of 
military rule return to the presidency. There is no doubt that with this 
choice, the United States is strengthening its grip on Latin America and 
the colonial exploitation of its peoples.

Finland

In Finland, abandoning neutrality has not paid off, and the economic 
situation marks the inglorious end of the prosperity of one of the 
European countries at the forefront of the so-called "frugal" movement. 
The Finnish economy was already in crisis, but this was exacerbated by 
its accession to NATO, which has also led to a budget deficit since 
2009. With an aging population demanding ever-increasing spending on 
public services, the country's financial situation appears extremely 
dire, while the Finnish budget deficit is widening and public debt is 
growing at an alarming rate. The central government deficit rose to 4% 
of GDP in 2024, and the debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to reach 87% by 
2027. The situation has been aggravated by the costs of defending a 
1,300 km border with Russia, which is difficult to address both 
economically and demographically, given that the birth rate is 0.027% 
per year. As of December 1, 2025, the population (permanent residents) 
of Finland was 5,543,659, including children under 6 years of age - 
561,295 people, adolescents (schoolchildren) aged 7 to 17 years - 
647,222 people, young people aged 18 to 29 years - 672,169 people, 
adults aged 30 to 60 years - 2,376,844 people, seniors aged 60 years and 
over - 1,042,208 people, centenarians in Finland over 80 years of age - 
243,921, which means that even if all potentially able-bodied citizens 
were called up to serve in the army, the population would not exceed 
three million. The Finnish armed forces have approximately 21,500 men 
and women on active duty, although they also have a reserve of 
approximately 900,000 conscripts, who are periodically recalled for 
training. This means the government will have to spend millions of euros 
on new weapons systems to reinforce the border and to mine it, as it 
plans to do.
This is while the country's exports, the main driver of its economy, 
have been severely impacted by weak demand from Germany and Sweden, its 
major trading partners, and supply chain disruptions, partly due to the 
severance of ties with Russia, have negatively impacted the country's 
main sources of income and wiped out the economic contribution of 
intense Russian tourism.
The unemployment rate is expected to rise dramatically, reaching 8.7% by 
2025. The construction sector, once the country's largest employer and 
particularly hard hit by population decline, while further problems are 
being generated by the public sector, which has supported employment in 
recent years, will remain stagnant as the government will have to adopt 
fiscal austerity measures.
With labor market reforms, the cuts to social benefits planned for 2025 
will be significant, and unemployment has reached its highest level in 
15 years, standing at 10.3% in October, according to data published by 
Statistics Finland. The rate was more than double, at 22.4%, among 15- 
to 24-year-olds.
Compounding the situation, the European Commission has decided to 
subject Finland to an "Excessive Deficit Procedure," after predicting 
that Finland will have a budget deficit above the EU limit of 3% for the 
next three years. This has prompted the government to cut some sectors 
of the welfare system, including unemployment benefits, housing 
benefits, and some healthcare facilities. The right-wing coalition 
government, in office since 2023, aims to "strengthen public finances 
and control the growing debt," including by facilitating layoffs to 
reduce hiring risks for companies. All this demonstrates that workers 
and the population are paying the price for their governments' 
warmongering policies.

The Editorial Staff

https://www.ucadi.org/2025/12/23/osservatorio-politico-8/
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