A-Infos (en) Italy, UCADI #199 - POLITICAL OBSERVATORY (ca, de, it, pt, tr)[machine translation]

Great Britain ---- A year after the election, won with the largest 
majority in thirty years, Keir Starmer's government has disappointed 
expectations; the Labour leader, a Freemason and Atlanticist, is facing 
rebellion from his own MPs. The Labour Party has risen in the polls from 
33% a year ago to 24% and is the second largest party behind Reform UK, 
Nigel Farage's right-wing populist party, while Starmer's personal 
approval rating has dropped from 61% to 23%. The failure is due more to 
the country's particularly dire financial situation than to a lack of 
personal charisma and the government's internal organizational problems.
The one who paid the price was Rachel Reeves, Chancellor of the 
Exchequer (the Finance Minister), who was forced to withdraw a 
particularly significant welfare reform measure that envisaged cuts of 
approximately 55 billion pounds (63 billion euros), necessary to plug 
budget gaps, at the request of more than 100 Labour MPs who threatened 
to vote against the measure. Starmer intervened, trying to salvage what 
could be salvaged, effectively unburdening a weeping Reeves from the 
humiliation and touting the government's foreign policy successes, while 
failing to acknowledge that the country's economic situation is 
unsustainable, due to the financial exposure resulting from 
unconditional support for the war in Ukraine and the country's growing 
defense commitments and military spending. When this happened, it had 
immediate repercussions on the markets: the value of the pound began to 
fall and government bond yields began to rise, worsening the public 
finances. Regardless of Starmer's insensitivity toward his minister, it 
is a fact that the Labour government has found itself facing a £22 
billion budget deficit, caused by the indebtedness of previous 
governments, precisely because of the country's military spending and 
international commitments.
In an attempt to resolve the financial crisis, Starmer and Reeves have 
raised some taxes, sparking widespread protests, especially among 
farmers, who are the group most affected by the austerity policy, as is 
the case throughout Europe for the same reason. Nor are things going any 
better for the government regarding immigration policy, where the 
rejection of migrants appears to have failed, despite the agreements 
with France. In the first six months of 2025, 20,000 migrants entered 
the country, a 48% increase compared to the same period in 2024. 
Although overall immigration has dropped significantly in the last year, 
migrants arriving from across the English Channel, those who cause the 
greatest social alarm, have increased.

But what worries British voters most are the government's broken 
promises regarding the reform of the national healthcare system, which 
will not be implemented for another 10 years, depriving citizens of all 
benefits. Ultimately, Starmer can claim only one success: the tariff 
negotiations with Trump, which granted Britain preferential treatment.

France

Macron is in tears, and not so much because of the slaps from his wife, 
Brigitte, the first lady, but because the coffers are empty. To try to 
regain productivity and conserve resources, Prime Minister Fançois 
Bayrou has proposed abolishing Easter Monday and May 8th, which, 
established as a holiday in 1953, commemorates the surrender of Nazi 
Germany in 1945. This would save EUR5 billion from the state budget.
After Macron, in his address to the nation, called for raising EUR40 
billion for military rearmament, with an additional expenditure of 
EUR3.5 billion, the target was raised to EUR43.8 billion by 2026. Hence 
the plan to reduce the public deficit to 4.6% of GDP by 2026, compared 
to 5.8% in 2024.
According to the Prime Minister's statement, France's current financial 
situation is comparable to the Greek economic crisis of 2015-2019. The 
country is over-indebted and living beyond its means, therefore 
requiring enormous sacrifices. Shamelessly lying to the French, the 
prime minister declared that the country has considered it normal for 
decades to demand everything from the state, but this policy is 
unsustainable. He is careful not to admit that the budget constraints 
are caused by the rearmament policy, by the drain on public finances 
caused by supporting the war in Ukraine.
Most of the EUR44 billion to be recovered will come from savings and the 
temporary elimination of some tax breaks from the reduction of 
ministries' operating expenses: over 1,000 jobs in "unproductive 
agencies that waste state action" will be eliminated, as well as another 
3,000 civil servant positions in 2026, "excluding teachers as part of 
the school reform."

The axe of cuts will fall on the agriculture sector, also as a 
consequence of the European Union budget structure, which will reduce EU 
funding for the sector. While the farming community is already on the 
warpath, the right-wing and left-wing opposition parties are promising 
to bring down the government with a motion of no confidence. Trade 
unions are also preparing for the fight.

Czech Republic

Following the European Parliament resolution of September 19, 2019, 
which historically equated Nazism and Communism, passed by 535 votes in 
favor, 66 against, and 52 abstentions, on July 17, Czech President Petr 
Pavel signed an amendment to the Criminal Code that "criminalizes the 
promotion of communist ideology," equating it with Nazi propaganda. The 
new law provides for prison sentences of up to five years for anyone who 
"establishes, supports, or promotes Nazi, communist, or similar 
movements aimed at suppressing human rights, fundamental freedoms, or 
inciting racial, ethnic, national, religious, or class hatred."
Confirming the neoliberal and conservative hegemony currently pervading 
both the center-right and center-left, the measure condemns class 
struggle, under the illusion that it is possible to repress the 
aspirations of exploited people around the world to rebel against the 
exploitation of man by man. A similar measure was adopted by Ukraine in 
2014, following the Euromaidan and the start of military operations in 
Donbass. Kiev accused the Ukrainian Communist Party of financing 
pro-Russian separatists. On December 16, 2015, the Kiev Administrative 
Court, at the request of the Poroshenko government, declared the party 
illegal.

Moldova

While the war on the battlefield is drawing to its inevitable conclusion 
with Ukraine's defeat, NATO is preparing to open a new war front in 
Moldova, dragging the country into conflict with Russia. Current 
President Maya Santu managed to win the elections only by using the 
Moldovan diaspora to the West, effectively preventing the much larger 
one and a half million migrants to Russia from voting.
This goal was achieved by opening only two polling stations in Moscow, 
with 1,200 ballots for Moldovans living in Russia. Buoyed by the 
election result, the Moldovan government is organizing joint military 
exercises with NATO, along with Georgia. This is a dangerous maneuver 
because it could lead Russia to broaden its objectives by extending 
military action toward Odessa, thus reuniting the territory it controls 
with Transnistria.
Achieving this goal, however, would require a total defeat of Ukraine 
and the country's loss of access to the Black Sea. By doing so, NATO 
risks exacerbating the consequences of a defeat for Ukraine.

Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan is assuming an increasingly ambiguous political role. The 
former Soviet republic is linked to the Russian Federation, but at the 
same time maintains very close ties with Turkey, from which it received 
military support in its recent war with Armenia. An oil-producing 
country, it supplies Ukraine with oil and simultaneously allows the 
Mossad, Israel's secret service, to operate freely on its territory. 
Indeed, it appears that some of Israel's drone strikes against Iran 
originated from Azerbaijani territory, which also allowed the use of its 
airspace for Israeli fighter jets. It also served as a base for the 
Ukrainian intelligence service for operations against Russian strategic 
bombers. Russia responded with police actions against the Azerbaijani 
mafia, known to be linked to Ukraine, and by bombing Ukrainian 
refineries supplied by Azerbaijanis.

Syria

Clashes are escalating in Syria between different factions of the 
population and the divisions of different ethnic and religious groups. 
Unlike the secular government ensured by the Assad regime, the jihadist 
government sponsored by Turkey and the United States is effectively 
leaving Syria in the hands of the Israeli government, which has occupied 
the Golan Heights and, through its instrumental alliance with the Druze, 
is seeking to establish its own de facto protectorate over the country.

The Editorial Staff

https://www.ucadi.org/2025/07/27/osservatorio-politico-5/
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