A-Infos (en) Italy, UCADI #197 - POLITICAL OBSERVATORY (ca, de, it, pt, tr)[machine translation]

Germany: Merz, the lame duckling ---- The new German government starts 
off on the wrong foot: Presented to the vote in front of the Bundestag 
to receive the vote of confidence, it fails to reach a majority. It 
takes a few hours to tame the snipers evidently nested within the CDU to 
obtain the long-awaited vote of confidence. It is the first time this 
has happened in democratic Germany. While the new government is born in 
the country, the polls announce that Allianz full Deutscheland becomes 
the first party. The government is born under the banner of rearmament 
in Germany and a gigantic plan of investments made with debt, after 
forcing the constitution on the expired Parliament, with the prospect of 
relaunching the German economy, which is clearly in recession. While the 
prospects of relaunching the economy, even by resorting to rearmament, 
appear more than problematic, what is certain is the progressive 
deterioration of the internal political situation and the growth of the 
far right. To accentuate the instability of the political situation is 
the fact that a significant portion of the left is outside the 
institutions, because it is not represented in Parliament due to the 
electoral law. But there is more: in most of the eastern German states, 
AfD is essential for the formation of local governments and many members 
of the CDU believe it is necessary to drop the ban on collaboration, 
even though they realize that this would mean opening a loophole in the 
ban on collaboration. The situation is complicated by the investigation 
by the secret services into the AfD which denounces its activities 
subversive of the constitutional order.

In light of these elements, it is logical to predict a strong period of 
instability for Germany, especially since the contradictions can only 
grow due to the country's involvement in supporting the war in Ukraine, 
which is the factor of unpopularity that has decimated the votes of the 
SPD and risks eroding the consensus of the CDU-CSU, due to the 
opposition of a part of the Christian Democrat electorate to the 
warmongering of the government coalition that currently governs the country.

Canada wins the anti-Trump

The Liberal Mark Carney former governor of the Bank of Canada and the 
Bank of England has obtained a historic victory in the early legislative 
elections of April 28, overturning the return to power of the 
Conservative Party. His success comes from the commitment to resist the 
trade war launched by Donald Trump to the "betrayal" of the United 
States. The threat of customs duties and threats of annexation, has 
changed the cards on the table.
Carney has been able to convince voters that he is the right person to 
lead the country in these difficult times. The new prime minister has 
committed to maintaining tariffs on US products as long as Trump 
continues his trade offensive, but also to develop internal trade by 
eliminating barriers between provinces, as well as seeking new outlets 
abroad, particularly in Europe with which he wants to strengthen ties.

Great Britain: Reform wins local elections

The first by-elections held in the United Kingdom after the electoral 
success of the Labour Party saw the affirmation of the fascists led by 
Nigel Farage who had barely been kept out of Parliament thanks to an 
electoral law that sacrifices the smaller parties. Farage's fan is 
gaining more and more consensus: this is demonstrated by the results of 
the by-elections in Runcorn and Helsby, in the north-west of England, 
where Reform candidate Sarah Pochin won by just six votes, and those of 
the local elections, which put 1,641 seats in 23 non-metropolitan local 
councils and six mayoral positions up for grabs. Reform, from zero, won 
over 660 seats out of the total council seats, winning an absolute 
majority and gaining control of a dozen and two mayors of the six urban 
areas put to the vote. Now Reform governs the Greater Lincolnshire 
borough, a former Conservative stronghold, where more than a million 
people live, with Andrea Jenkyns, a former Tory MP and former Education 
Under-Secretary in Boris Johnson's government who switched to Farage's 
camp. Farage's other candidate is former Olympic boxing champion Luke 
Campbell, who became mayor of Hull and East in Yorkshire. It will be 
said that at the moment it is not much but when it happened it sounds 
like a death knell for the Conservatives and a wake-up call for 
Starmer's government which is paying the price for its intrigues with 
Freemasonry in the international arena, its flattening of both internal 
policies and being Conservative, the complete betrayal of its government 
program with the surrender to the center and right in the country. What 
weighs is then the unconditional support for the war in Ukraine.

Albania: Rama IV

3.7 million voters were called to the polls in Albania to elect the 140 
members of Parliament.
As expected, the percentage of voters dropped further, given that two 
million Albanians from the diaspora were called to vote for the first 
time. However, only 245,935 registered with the Central Election 
Commission (Kqz) and voted by mail at embassies. 40 parties with a 
proportional electoral law participated in the vote. According to 
observations by international organizations, including the OSCE, the 
elections were generally well-organized and competitive, although 
concerns were raised regarding the misuse of public resources and the 
polarized climate created by the main parties. The Socialist Party led 
by Prime Minister Edi Rama obtained 52.3% of the vote and won 83 of the 
140 seats in Parliament, thus exceeding the threshold for an absolute 
majority, which is 71 seats. This means that the Socialist Party will be 
able to govern without the need to form coalitions. This victory 
represents an increase compared to the 2021 elections, when the party 
obtained 48.7% of the vote and 74 seats. The main opposition party, the 
Democratic Party led by Sali Berisha, collected 33.8% of the vote, 
obtaining 50 seats. The voter turnout was 46.54%, slightly lower than in 
the previous elections. Today Rama can approve the reforms that can 
allow entry into the European Union. This is provided that new obstacles 
are not placed in the way to make the country wait even longer in the 
face of the entirely political priority of the disastrous entry of Ukraine.

Although the country expects to receive benefits from EU membership, its 
economic growth is slowed down by the lack of investment. The only 
sector with strong growth is tourism, which benefits from the country's 
non-adherence to the euro. In these conditions, emigration remains the 
only resource for Albanians and the issue of Kosovo and that of the 
Albanian component of the population of North Macedonia remain 
unresolved at the international level. Only large investments in the 
tourism sector in the Horid lake basin could act as a driving force for 
the development of the area.
A part of the Albanian elite prefers to continue flirting with Turkey, 
as demonstrated by the renting to the Turks of the Porto Palermo base, 
overlooking the Italian coast, a worrying choice for Italy which has 
conflicting interests to those of Turkey in Libya.
At the moment Rome is trying to consolidate its presence in the country 
by offering the departure of the Giro d'Italia from Albania as an 
electoral spot for Rama and trying to promote regional alliances such as 
the recent collaboration treaty between Albania
Kosovo and Croatia.

India - Pakistan: Kashmir disputed

Triggered by a Pakistani terrorist group, yet another war has broken out 
for the control of Kashmir, a territory north of India and Pakistan, 
disputed between the two States, from which the three rivers Indus, 
Ganges, Brahmaputra and most of their tributaries originate, which feed 
and make life possible on the Indian subcontinent.
The region of Kashmir has been a disputed territory since the partition 
of the territories of the British Empire, which included not only 
Pakistan and India, but also Burma. After the division between India and 
Pakistan, Kashmir remained an independent territory governed by an 
Indian maharaja, even if inhabited by a predominantly Muslim population. 
Both countries exercised de facto control over the territory, even if a 
real division of the territory was never possible due to the 
intersection of communication routes and the impossibility of drawing 
precise borders. On the other hand, the border between the two countries 
was drawn by Lord Mountbatten, governor of the Indies, on paper, in the 
manner of the colonizers, leaving the conflicts as a legacy to the 
post-colonial states. The importance of the region is strategic because 
in its territory, as has been said, the great rivers originate, which 
make life possible in the territories (the southern regions of Pakistan 
are very arid). Recently, India, which has effectively taken control of 
Kashmir, has implemented control of the dams and rivers that feed the 
main ones, depriving Pakistan of free access to the waters that are 
essential to make life possible in the country, in violation of the 
agreements signed. The guerrilla action that has always been present in 
Kashmir is fueled by the SIS, the powerful Pakistani secret service, and 
following the latest attack in chronological order the two countries 
have proceeded to a border clash.
The conflict involves not only the two countries but also their 
respective allies, taking into account the fact that India's main ally 
is Russia, but also France supplies weapons to the country, while 
supporting Pakistan is China, which not only arms the country with its 
own defense systems, but is the owner of massive investments, 
particularly in the field of mining and infrastructure, as it aims to 
keep a communication corridor between the internal provinces of China 
and the port of Karachi accessible, running its goods along the entire 
country and significantly shortening its trade routes from Xinjiang to 
the Indian Ocean.
The governments of the two countries both have nationalist positions and 
Modi, the Indian leader who conducts a policy of discrimination against 
the Islamic component of the Indian population, which amounts to about 
200 million, needs to publicly reiterate his firmness to affirm Hindu 
supremacy even within the country. Pakistan, for its part, has every 
interest in demonstrating that it defends the Islamic identity of the 
populations. All this means that the conflict between the two countries 
is characterized by fierce ideological propaganda on both sides, aimed 
at fueling hatred and resentment between the populations, despite the 
reticence of the two peoples to follow the path of conflict.
The US diplomacy has entered the dispute as a mediator, eager to break 
relations between the BRICS countries and eager to sabotage the 
relations of Russia and China with their respective partners. Since it 
is a clash between two nuclear powers, the conflict has been rigorously 
kept by the parties within the framework of an exchange of reprisals, 
using planes and drones. At the moment, thanks to the mediation 
intervention of Russia and China, the conflict between the parties seems 
contained even if it must be said that the fighting that took place has 
demonstrated on the field the superiority of the Chinese weapons systems 
supplied to Pakistan.

Romania: the willing are saved by the skin of their teeth

The four decomposed leaders of England, France, Germany, and Poland have 
managed to implement in Romania what we could call an institutional coup 
d'état by inducing the Romanian state authorities to cancel the first 
round of elections and call for new political elections. The aim was to 
stem the pressing demands of public opinion opposed to the war, which, 
in order to pursue this objective, had said it was willing to vote for 
the sovereignist far-right that promised to stop supporting aid to 
Ukraine and to put a stop to the intrusion of Ukrainian refugees into 
the country.[1]
In the first round of the new vote, 40.9% of voters held their noses and 
voted for George Simion, a far-right xenophobic, pro-fascist, racist 
candidate. In the second round, voter turnout increased significantly, 
with 65% of eligible voters voting, more than 10 percentage points 
higher than the 53% in the first round. The increase in turnout 
undoubtedly helped Dan recover, with 54.3% of the vote versus 45.6% for 
far-right leader George Simion. Simion acknowledged defeat late in the 
evening.

Problems remain

Even though Brussels is breathing a sigh of relief, the problems posed 
by the Romanian electorate remain. Young Romanians are terrified at the 
idea of the country's rearmament and the prospect of being called up to 
fight to defend Ukraine; farmers are tired and fed up with the 
competition that Ukrainian farmers are making for their products, 
selling their produce in Romania without paying taxes and taking 
advantage of the exchange rate difference; the inhabitants of the 
countryside and the cities are tired of seeing the Ukrainian war 
profiteers roaming around the country to spend and expand the profits 
they pocketed. trading false certificates of disability to avoid being 
called up for military service, carousing in Romanian clubs and luxury 
hotels. Many of them have shown that they are willing to suffer 
anything, to accept the most backward management of social relations in 
order not to die and to stem even just a little the inequalities 
introduced by a legislation favorable to Ukrainian refugees that grants 
bonuses for food support, for renting houses, for the support of 
children, to Ukrainian refugees when the poorest Romanian families are 
left to themselves in poverty and forced to emigrate, to see mothers and 
sisters leave as carers in order to scrape together the minimum 
resources that allow them to live.
The Romanian vote in favor of the far right is still a cry of pain, it 
is the fruit of desperation in the face of injustice and poverty, it is 
the fruit of the fear of war by those who have nothing but their lives 
to defend, however miserable they may be! In a climate of reborn 
nationalism, the news coming from Ukraine on the repression of the 
Romanian minority, on the forced recruitment of young people sent to the 
front to fight a war that is not theirs, will continue to be a thorn in 
the side of the politics of the new resident of the Republic, fueling 
the growing unease in the country and particularly alive in the Romanian 
diaspora that participated in large numbers in the vote and that from 
now on intends to weigh in on the political life of the country.

Portugal: the right wins

On this fateful May 18, voting also took place in Portugal, to renew the 
Assembly of the Republic, the Portuguese unicameral Parliament, composed 
of 230 members. At least 116 seats are needed to guarantee a majority. 
Portugal uses a system of proportional representation, which means that 
for a party to obtain a parliamentary majority it must obtain at least 
42% of the vote, for the majority bonus to be triggered: a threshold 
that neither of the two main parties can currently reach. In the 
background, therefore, remains a scenario of new and persistent relative 
ungovernability. The country has long been characterized by great 
political instability. With its 10.8 million inhabitants, Portugal has 
had a series of minority governments in recent years. The two parties 
that traditionally compete for power, the center-right Social Democrats 
and the center-left Socialists, have progressively lost votes to the 
smaller parties that are growing, and among these especially to the 
xenophobic right-wing party Chega. Returning to the polls after 14 
months, the Portuguese have rewarded.
Democratic Alliance, the main coalition in Parliament, with 32%, three 
points more than in the March 2024 vote. The Socialists collapse from 
28% to 23, recording their worst result since the late 1980s. Chega 
(Enough!), breaks through the 20% ceiling, and gains five points and, 
settling at 22.5, a few decimal points below the PSU.
The elections were called because the center-right government of Luis 
Montenegro had collapsed due to a failed vote of confidence but general 
discontent is spreading in the country due to the economic situation of 
the country also induced by the energy crisis.
The country needs to emerge from political uncertainty in the face of 
the fact that it is about to invest over 22 million euros in development 
funds from the European Union and there is no government program and a 
sure guide for this effort to be successful and revive the disastrous 
Portuguese economy.
As we have seen, this political instability favors the rise of Chega. At 
the center of the crisis is the corruption of the political class and 
the scandals connected to the private interests of the Prime Minister. 
He would have maintained ownership of his law firm, continuing to do 
business with the public administration and was therefore forced to 
resign. Evidently, Portuguese politics has not yet overcome, like the 
American one, the taboo of conflict of interest and therefore does not 
allow the Prime Minister to pursue private interests in the performance 
of public duties and goes so far as to provoke a government crisis, 
calling for new elections.
The President of the Republic, Rebelo da Sousa, will open immediate 
consultations to form the new government; the Alliance has 86 seats, 
about thirty less than the 116 needed for a majority. Montenegro has 
promised that he will not ally himself with Chega but to form the 
government, at least the abstention of the socialists is necessary. The 
political crisis in Portugal is far from resolved.

Poland: the right wins

On May 18, the first round of elections was held in Poland. 11 parties 
are taking part in the election, but only three of them have the 
majority of votes, all three of which are centre-right. Platforma 
Obywatelska P.O. (Civic Platform), the party led by Rafal Trzaskowski, 
the liberal mayor of Warsaw, close to Prime Minister Tusk, is pitted 
against the independent candidate of PiS, Karol Nawrocki, and against 
Slawomir Mentzenun, the far-right sovereignist businessman.
The strategy of the willing is in crisis. Their candidate Trzaskowski is 
almost equal in consensus with Nawrocki and in the run-off everything 
will depend on the alliances and in particular on the vote of those who 
supported the right-wing candidate Mentzenun.
The elections are taking place in a climate of political and economic 
uncertainty and division, but the issues relating to internal politics 
are prevailing.
The political conflict, which is enriched by resentments and personal 
controversies between the various leaders, is polarized. On one side, 
the liberal bloc represented by P.O., on pro-European positions, in 
government with Prime Minister Donald Tusk. On the other, the right-wing 
national-conservative party Prawo i Sprawiedliwosc (Law and Justice, 
PiS, of Jaroslaw Kaczynski), in opposition, of the outgoing president 
Andrzej Duda, who was unable to run after two consecutive mandates.
In fact, this situation immobilizes the country because President Duda 
exercises the right of veto on the law proposed to the government, 
blocking the reform action. It should also be remembered that in Poland 
the President of the Republic has limited powers but the Commander in 
Chief of the Armed Forces, who leads foreign policy, has the right to 
introduce and veto laws and therefore has a strong power to influence 
the executive.
The vote is based on an electoral law that provides for the use of a 
two-round majoritarian system: to be elected, an absolute majority of 
preferences is required (50% +1). If this does not happen, a second 
round is held in which the first two candidates participate, within two 
weeks; the run-off is scheduled for June 1st. The winner will remain in 
office for five years, and will be able to run for a second term. The 
elected president will take office before a joint session of the lower 
house of parliament (Sejm) and the Senate on August 6th.
Among the candidates, only Trzaskowski said he was in favor of Ukraine 
joining NATO, but at the same time he supported the proposal to reduce 
social welfare benefits created for Ukrainian refugees fleeing the war 
(we are talking about about one million people, in addition to another 
million Ukrainians permanently resident in Poland). He declared that he 
shares the positions of his opponents who accuse the Ukrainian 
population of engaging in "medical tourism" in Poland.
Although this attempt to exploit the resentment towards the Ukrainians 
and the war did not escape the electoral propaganda, it must be said 
that the clash focused on the country's internal political issues, 
recording a shift to the right in the political debate. Certainly the 
issue of combating migration was the fulcrum of the electoral campaign 
of all parties, even if the issue of abortion returned to the forefront 
after the numerous protests of the past years and the recent 
parliamentary debate on decriminalization. In this regard, Trzaskowski 
maintained his support for the legalization of abortion, but referred to 
this issue less than in the past, reducing his support for the LGBT+ 
community, continues to support the defense of civil rights and counts 
on the country's rearmament policy to strengthen its consensus. The PiS, 
for its part, is fiercely opposed to abortion and supports legislation 
to support the family and the work of the Church, criticizing the 
secularization of institutions.

The second round of the elections will tell us which party will prevail.

[1]See also: Political Observatory, published on March 2, 2025 by Ucadi 
in Number 194 - February 2025, Newsletter, year 2025; Romanian-style 
coup, published on January 2, 2025 by Ucadi in Newsletter, Number 192 - 
December 2024, year 2024;
Political Observatory, Newsletter Political Growth n. 195, 2025.

The Editorial Staff

https://www.ucadi.org/2025/05/25/osservatorio-politico-4/
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