A-Infos (en) Italy, UCADI #190 - US Elections (ca, de, it, pt, tr)[machine translation]

Less than a week before the vote, all polls report that the two 
candidates have collected the same percentage of votes and that 
therefore the final outcome of the clash is extremely uncertain. The 
polls take place while people have already voted by mail more than in 
any other election and therefore there is a well-founded suspicion that 
they record what has already happened. This tie in the collection of 
consensus appears uniform in all the States and this constitutes an 
element of perplexity and suspicion, as if the media were doing 
everything to delay any news on the final outcome of the vote, in the 
face of uncertainty about what will happen at the hands of the two 
contenders. What is certain is that in any case Trump will find it 
difficult to accept his possible defeat and will once again cry out 
about a rigged vote and a stolen victory. Of course, his real powers 
will depend on who controls the House and the Senate and whether this 
can constitute a counterweight. In any case, it is certain that the next 
day we will not know who won, because the counting of votes and above 
all the verification of its regularity will require many days, 
cumbersome and complex procedures, leaving the country in uncertainty. 
There is however a difference with the past elections, because this time 
Joe Biden still sits in the White House and it will be up to him to 
ensure and guarantee compliance with the transition to the new 
administration, so it will be almost impossible for gangs of Trump 
supporters, thanks to the complicity of the police, to walk the streets 
of the capital, preparing for a new assault on Capitol Hall. The 
substantial balance on the eve between the two candidates is explained 
by the fact that the country is effectively split in two from an 
economic, sociological and class composition point of view, and this has 
undeniable and inevitable effects on the vote. The distribution of 
consensus has changed not only because Trump has destroyed the old 
Republican Party, making it a personal populist party, but above all 
because the living and working conditions of the citizens of the country 
have profoundly changed. The restructuring of the country's economy, the 
decentralization of production, the dismantling of traditional industry, 
the deindustrialization of many territories, has destroyed the reference 
bases of the working class, traditionally linked to the Democratic 
Party, has created a vast category of new poor, to the point that many 
of them today vote for the Republican Party to express a protest vote, 
an anti-institutional void, which paradoxically is given to the most 
institutional candidate of the two, namely Donald Trump, who is the 
living and working expression of a rampant capitalism without moral 
qualms, without rules, unscrupulous, which has massacred the working 
class and its rights. Thus it happens that at least a large part of the 
workers' vote is added to that of the evangelical Churches, of the deep 
country, of the countryside and the suburbs. The resentment and fear of 
Latino immigrants contributes to strengthening the ranks of Trumpian 
Republicans. recently become US citizens, who see their position 
threatened by a huge mass of illegal migrants, looked upon with sympathy 
and solidarity by the most cultured component of the country that makes 
reception policies one of its distinctive characteristics and whose 
point of reference is the Democratic Party. Added to this, as revealed 
by some polls, is the perplexity of many black male voters who express 
distrust towards a female candidate, even if she gathers the consensus 
of many women, due to her position regarding abortion and the freedom of 
the woman's body. But the growth of inflation that largely exceeds 10% 
contributes significantly to the vote, which simplistically makes the 
voter think that his situation was better during the Trump 
administration and this even if the US economy has never been so 
flourishing. The United States has managed to detach the European 
economy from Russia's energy supplies, thanks to the war in Ukraine and 
to put German and European competition in crisis. For his part, Trump 
can take this result for granted and become the standard-bearer of a 
similar opposition to China by asking the country to focus its attention 
on the Asian chessboard and continue to oppose Europe with a policy of 
high tariffs.

Foreign policy and consensus for candidates

Contrary to popular belief, foreign policy does not have much importance 
for the average American voter, even if it ends up weighing on the 
orientation of specific elite groups and affects the choices of some 
minorities such as the Jewish and Muslim ones, which end up having great 
relevance, because in some key states they constitute or could 
constitute that number of voters that makes the difference in the 
assignment of delegates in the state. So Donald Trump can say that he 
will do everything to end the war in Ukraine or at least that he will 
pass the entire cost on to Europe, assuming that this desire continues 
to support him, while he will devote more attention to the Indo-Pacific 
and will leave free rein to Netanyahu regarding the continuation of the 
conflict in Palestine, up to its extreme consequences. Harris cannot 
afford this clarity and, while maintaining an ambiguous line of 
continuity with respect to Ukraine, albeit with some perplexity, she is 
willing to put an end to the war effort and must take a more ambiguous 
position with respect to the Middle East, maintaining that same 
uncertainty in action and that extreme weakness that has characterized, 
in many ways, the Biden administration, not only in the last phase of 
his mandate. Harris also seems to converge in the concerns about China 
and the Indo-Pacific, which are an area of attention for all US 
politics. The situation is such that only after the elections and with a 
consolidated result, will we be able to understand to what extent the 
choice of the new President will influence the foreign policy of the 
United States.

The Editorial Staff

https://www.ucadi.org/2024/10/30/elezioni-usa/
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