A-Infos (en) Bulgaria, ABL: Crisis in the Tech Paradise: Precarization, Inequality, and AI in the IT Sector (2014-2026) (ca, de, it, pt, tr)[machine translation]

Over the past decade, the IT sector has undergone a radical structural 
shift. The myth of the continuous rise and inviolability of the tech 
worker has been shattered by the laws of capitalist concentration, the 
global redistribution of labor, and the advent of Automation 2.0 
(Artificial Intelligence, AI). --- The IT sector has two specificities 
that make it important for the revolutionary potential of global 
society. On the one hand, its very subject matter is key to the 
functioning of the world as we know it. On the other hand, due to the 
possibility of remote work, it is the easiest sector to integrate 
workers from poor countries compared to other sectors.

The processes and technologies on which today's corporations and states 
are based are controlled by highly skilled workers (and in particular 
those in the IT sector), whom we call the "cognitariat". Under the 
pressure of the new processes, their high standards collapse, and their 
illusions of security disappear. Their radicalization and mobilization 
behind the revolutionary cause is a key factor for the success of a 
future revolution.

Part I: Geographic concentration and stratification of personnel
The global IT map is deeply divided into three main zones, determining 
the qualifications and living standards of workers

The Technology Center of the West
This is where the current technological revolution, including modern AI, 
was created. This is where the strategic human resource potential is 
concentrated - software architects, AI researchers and product managers. 
But despite their high qualifications, for the most part they are no 
longer the "labor aristocracy", but are subjected to intense pressure 
for efficiency and the constant threat of layoffs.

Moreover, the US is no longer the leading country, at least when it 
comes to the number of software engineers. If in 2014 the US had the 
most engineers, around 4 million, in 2024 India will already be ahead of 
them with almost 6 million. For China, the forecasts even reach 7 
million. In 2025 the trend will continue, despite the "cooling" of the 
market.

Wages in the West are also declining. As of 2014, with an average salary 
of ~$95,000, purchasing power is no higher than in 2024-2026, with an 
average salary already over $150,000. The cost of living (especially 
rent and healthcare in cities like San Francisco and Seattle) has 
increased by over 40%. The real growth in purchasing power over the 
decade is only about 10-12%. A programmer in the US today can buy more 
software subscriptions and electronics, but it is more difficult to 
afford a home of his own compared to 2014.

The periphery of cheap labor
The East, especially the English-speaking East, has established itself 
as a suitable outsourcing destination. India, the Philippines, other 
Southeast Asian countries have created a supporting army of millions of 
low- and medium-skilled workers (routine coding, maintenance, QA, 
preparing data for AI training). They are well paid and in many ways 
live better than their Western counterparts.

In India, as of 2014, the starting salary for a good developer was 
~$8,000 - $12,000. The standard is at the middle class level. Today, 
salaries for experienced professionals in product companies have jumped 
to $35,000 - $50,000. Due to the low prices of services and food in 
India, these amounts are equivalent to a standard of living of over 
$130,000 in the US. Real purchasing power has increased by nearly 60-70%.

An IT professional in India can often afford a personal driver, a 
domestic helper, and living in a luxury gated community-things that are 
out of reach for the average programmer in the U.S. The quality of the 
urban environment (e.g., traffic and pollution) remains poor, but it can 
be said that at least some of these people are moving from "middle 
class" to "social elite," affording luxury properties and personal 
services that are unthinkable for their counterparts in the West.

Although there are no reliable data, it seems that the situation in 
China is similar. The number of software engineers in the country is 
expected to reach about 7 million this year. If in 2014 the average 
annual salary was ~$12,000, today it is about $45,000 - $65,000. Salary 
growth (34.8% for the period 2019-2024 alone) has significantly outpaced 
inflation. The Chinese programmer today has about 50% higher purchasing 
power than 10 years ago. However, property prices in Shanghai and 
Shenzhen remain a huge barrier that limits the feeling of wealth.

The semi-periphery
In many countries of Eastern Europe and Latin America, a specific 
balancing zone has formed, which provides highly qualified personnel 
with cultural proximity to the West, but at a lower price. In this zone, 
the processes are developing even more complicated, because the trends 
are ambiguous. On the one hand, they have established themselves as 
suitable destinations for exporting low-risk jobs, on the other - new 
destinations are already established, on the third - new trends in job 
cuts are still having their effect. There are many factors and Latin 
America as a whole suffers more than Europe, due to the lower 
qualification of the staff and the lack of legal regulations on the 
labor market.

To avoid averaging for such a diverse region, we will only provide data 
for Bulgaria - a small country in Southeast Europe with a population of 
just over 6 million people. For the period 2014 - 2026, jobs in the 
sector increased from 45,000 to 120,000. The average annual salary - 
from 15,000 to 40,000 euros. Probably part of the change is due to the 
"lightening" of the sector, but it undoubtedly reflects global trends. 
The salary in employment in the last few years also did not bypass the 
local labor market. For 2026, the growth of jobs in less than 2% on an 
annual basis, the structure is shifting towards more experienced, at the 
expense of junior and low-skilled specialists.

Read: Part II - Thunder in Paradise https://www.anarchy.bg

https://www.anarchy.bg/
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