A-Infos (en) Italy, FDCA, Cantiere #44 - The war is wearing Trump and Netanyahu down -- Marco Veruggio (ca, de, fr, it, pt, tr)[machine translation]

The crisis of the United States and its alliance system, led by the Gulf 
states and Israel, is now evident, as is the firefighting role of the 
liberal and trade union "opposition." For internationalists, it is a 
challenge they must face. The announcement on April 7 of a truce that 
will likely be very short-lived is nevertheless an opportunity to take 
stock of the war with Iran, attempting to analyze some aspects in 
greater depth. Asking who has won, at least so far, raises a 
methodological issue. If, as Clausewitz writes, war "is nothing other 
than politics itself, laying down the pen and taking up the sword, but 
nevertheless continuing to govern itself according to its own laws," 
then judgment must be based on the declared political objectives of the 
attack on Iran the end of the Iranian nuclear program and regime change 
and acknowledge that they have not been achieved. The United States and 
Israel have decapitated the regime and inflicted severe blows on Iran's 
productive, logistical, and military apparatus without breaking either 
its will or its resistance. In return, they have sidelined (who knows 
for how long) the opposition that in the preceding months had resisted a 
brutal repression and challenged the security forces, even militarily. 
And they have shifted the balance of power within the regime even 
further in favor of the Pasdaran.
Iran has demonstrated that it has prepared for war with strategic 
planning centered on a decentralized defense system, capable of 
withstanding the elimination of its main command centers, and on an 
offensive system based on missiles and drones, often low-cost, with 
which it has saturated enemy defenses, consumed their stockpiles, 
imposed exorbitant costs on them, and ultimately breached them. Shortly 
after the attack, the Financial Times warned that "the US and Israel 
consumed their stockpiles of anti-missile weapons at an unprecedented 
rate during the 12-day war, when Iran fired hundreds of missiles at 
Israel. Today, the US military assesses that the Iranian response could 
severely strain supplies of those crucial munitions, which it is already 
struggling to replenish, and this affects not only the war in Ukraine 
but also Washington's war plans for potential conflicts with China and 
Russia."

With drones and missiles, Tehran has relatively easily attacked the 
technological hubs of American and Israeli military power in the region 
including the radars responsible for early warning and anti-missile 
defense and Oracle and Amazon data centers in the United Arab Emirates 
and Bahrain but above all, the strategic hubs of their policy.
The Gulf countries, long a home or temporary refuge, a business hub or 
tourist destination for billionaires, financiers, adventurers, tax 
evaders, and fugitives, Western politicians seeking sponsorship (Italy 
knows something about this), and now also influencers and gurus, have 
been plunged overnight into a potentially catastrophic nightmare 
scenario for their businesses. Israel, even more than in the 12-Day War, 
has seen the myth of Iron Dome crumble, the advance warnings that 
allowed the population to flow orderly into shelters vanish, and the 
enemies whose defeat (Iran) or annihilation (Hezbollah) had been 
declared resurgent.
The United States finds itself mired in a war that benefits its main 
adversaries China and Russia first and foremost and with the first 
coffins to be delivered to the soldiers' families, the worst misfortune 
one could wish on an American president. The entire world sees its 
strategic supplies threatened oil, gas, helium (and therefore 
microchips), and fertilizers, as well as the Asian goods that fuel world 
trade and is experiencing price increases higher than those of the 
1970s. Furthermore, the ceasefire agreement de facto recognizes Iranian 
control over Hormuz, on which Tehran is also demanding a toll.
The European bourgeoisies, for a change, are attempting to shift the 
costs of the conflict onto each other, confirming their own irrelevance 
and the throes of the project of an imperialist pole on the Old (in 
every sense) Continent. France and Germany dream, respectively, of 
nuclear hegemony and the largest armed forces in Europe. Spain one day 
denies Trump bases and the next sends a frigate to defend Cyprus 
(similarly, in December, after rejecting rearmament and genocide, it 
increased military spending by two billion and authorized military 
supplies to Israel without even passing through Parliament). Italy 
confirms its status as a ragged imperialist and the country historically 
most prone to American interests in Europe (Sigonella was the exception 
that proves the rule).

Unlike Iran, where the regime, with boundless cynicism—at least for 
now—can unflinchingly sacrifice Iranian lives to ensure its survival, in 
the US and Israel the impact of the conflict has led to shifts in public 
opinion, social backlash, and internal strife within the ruling classes 
and state apparatuses. The attack on Iran is opposed by two out of three 
Americans and is costing Trump a significant amount of support six 
months before the midterm elections. Part of the nationalist and 
Christian electoral base, which had voted for Trump for his isolationist 
and "pacifist" promises, is in revolt, with former prominent supporters 
like journalist Tucker Carlson virulently attacking him daily. The third 
No Kings day, beyond the inherent weakness of the brand and the numbers 
(how reliable is unknown), nevertheless appears to have mobilized not 
only large urban areas but also smaller towns. However, the main symptom 
of the crisis is the internal conflict within the apparatus of American 
imperialism. Trump, after advisor Mike Waltz and Homeland Security 
Secretary Kristi Noem, has also fired Attorney General Pam Bondi, and 
the next to be purged could be Tulsi Gabbard, the intelligence chief who 
denied the threat of an Iranian attack at the start of the war. War 
Secretary Hegseth and Secretary of State Rubio appear to have sidelined 
Trump's deputy, Vance, who apparently opposes attacking Iran. Hegseth 
also recently took early retirement, during the ongoing war, of his own 
chief of staff and two other senior military personnel. Last fall, when 
the armed forces' top brass were convened in an unscheduled manner, 
without warning or agenda, the generals' coldness toward Trump (who 
himself had complained about it) was clearly evident and has now 
filtered down to the rank-and-file. Soldiers and veterans are openly 
challenging the government, risking harsh disciplinary measures. A few 
weeks ago, a fire broke out aboard the USS Gerald Ford, the largest and 
most expensive ($13 billion) aircraft carrier in history. It took thirty 
hours to put out, burning the quarters of six hundred sailors, forcing 
the commander to evacuate them. A previous fault had clogged the 
restrooms, and speculation is gaining traction that the sailors, already 
exhausted by an unusually long 10-month mission, first in Venezuela and 
then in the Middle East, may have set the fire themselves: an episode 
that resembles a Mel Brooks-style screwball comedy rather than a John 
Wayne war film.
In Israel, censorship is no longer able to conceal the effects of the 
Iranian attacks. Those who can are emigrating, and frustration is 
opening ever wider cracks in the wall of complicity with the state, 
where old feuds that died down on October 7 are resurfacing. A year ago, 
the Israel Institute for Democracy revealed that a quarter of Israelis 
had considered emigrating, but the figure rose to 40% among left-wing 
respondents, 35% among centrists, and even among right-wing secularists, 
with peaks of 60% among wealthy, secular, and dual-citizen youth. 
Therefore, anti-government demonstrations (including those demanding the 
introduction of the death penalty for "terrorists") no longer mobilize a 
few dozen activists. On Easter Eve, thousands demonstrated in dozens of 
locations, including a thousand in Tel Aviv's Habima Square. The police 
attacked, and dozens were arrested, including Alon-Lee Green, leader of 
Standing Together, the left-wing organization uniting Jewish and 
Palestinian activists. The protesters also found support in the Supreme 
Court, which, to Netanyahu's ire, authorized the protests, overriding 
military-imposed bans. Using hyperbole, we could say that the conditions 
for regime change are almost there: not in Tehran, but in Tel Aviv and 
Washington. But there would be no one willing to lead it.
In the potentially explosive crisis facing Trump and Netanyahu, 
"progressive" parties and trade unions, albeit with distinct approaches 
in the two countries, appear to have adopted the same tactic: 
encouraging the most militant and intolerant fringes to challenge the 
two governments, sometimes offering them limited and indirect support, 
without ever making any public statements other than institutional 
initiatives and declarations, while awaiting the polls. The objective is 
clear: to exploit the discontent and propose to advance the same 
policies as Trump and Netanyahu, softening their harshness and, above 
all, promising more tangible results. The criticisms, in fact, never 
touch on the substance. Trump is accused of having struck Iran without 
adequate preparation and precise objectives. Netanyahu is accused of 
saying no to universal conscription to avoid losing the far-right's 
votes and of not having a plan to end the war. And, surreally, both are 
accused by their fellow citizens of being subservient to each other. 
After the attack on Iran, Peter Lerner, director of the International 
Relations Department of Histadrut, the Israeli trade union, published an 
editorial accusing the global labor movement of "an instinctive aversion 
to the use of force under any circumstances," which, however, "can 
sometimes be morally justified and even necessary to defend democratic 
societies from violent threats." In the US, United Auto Workers leader 
Shawn Fain remains stubbornly attached to the Dadaist-esque proposal for 
a general strike on May 1st... 2028, ahead of the presidential elections.

Iranian and Israeli workers are affected by the bombings and the 
economic impact of the war. In Iran, the website SlingersCollective has 
published some correspondence. One comes from an auto parts factory, 
where workers are without pay due to the production shutdown; the other, 
from a house cleaner in Tehran, explains that colleagues have been left 
without jobs because many of their employers have abandoned the capital 
to take refuge in their villas in northern Iran and Turkey. In Israel, 
Haaretz and websites like The Marker and Davar have reported on 
construction workers killed by Iranian missiles on building sites and 
the unsafe conditions not only in construction but also in agriculture 
and home care. Goldman Sachs predicts the war will cost 10,000 jobs a 
month to US workers, especially in tourism, public services, and retail. 
In Italy, the news that Salvini's Ministry of Infrastructure has cut €1 
billion for the maintenance of public housing "due to the war in Iran," 
a half-hearted denial, confirms that the war economy spares no one. 
Finally, militarism and the cult of the Fatherland are resurfacing in 
classrooms and universities, a natural precursor to the return of the 
more or less compulsory military service being debated throughout 
Europe. However, beyond its unacceptable burden of barbarity, the war 
also contains the seeds for the maturation of a class-based, 
internationalist, and antimilitarist political consciousness among 
millions of proletarians. While the institutional opposition is 
concerned with gaining a few extra votes, the class-based left should 
throw itself headlong into stimulating this process, defending it, and 
reaping its fruits.

https://alternativalibertaria.fdca.it/wpAL/
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