A-Infos (en) Italy, UCADI, #208 - Middle East: Possible Scenarios (ca, de, it, pt, tr)[machine translation]

The Israeli-American attack on Iran has disrupted the political 
landscape of the Middle East, producing a structural economic crisis in 
the region and laying the foundations for the expulsion of the US 
imperial presence. In addition to destabilizing the global economy, due 
to the centrality of production located in the Persian Gulf, the ongoing 
conflict entails a strategic reorganization influenced by complex and 
not entirely known factors, which must be carefully considered to 
envision possible outcomes for the crisis.
By attacking the Islamic Republic of Iran, the United States responded 
to general geopolitical strategic needs, linked to gaining control of 
world trade, oil, and gas. This is necessary to continue anchoring its 
currency to these commodities, given that the petrodollar is currently 
the sick man of the global economy. Indeed, with the collapse of their 
currency's convertibility in the 1970s, the peg to oil and gas 
strengthened the US economy, allowing the US to profit from trade and 
live beyond its means, even as it increasingly reduced its productive 
base and increased imports.
The crisis was caused by the growing tendency among the BRICS countries, 
and not only among them, to pay for oil and gas supplies in currencies 
other than the dollar, often their national currencies. The value of 
dollar-denominated trade declined, losing approximately 12% against the 
euro in 2025 and continuing to show weakness in early 2026 (losing over 
13% in January 2026 compared to January 2025). The consequence was that 
the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves fell to 58% 
(first quarter of 2025), reaching its lowest levels in twenty years, 
with central banks diversifying into gold and the yuan and selling US 
government bonds, which had previously been used as reserve currency.[1]
In an effort to achieve their goal, the United States induced its 
vassals in the Middle East to join them in a war of aggression against 
Iran, which these states viewed as a regional competitor to be 
eliminated. The strategic project, unifying from an economic standpoint, 
consisted of the so-called "Abraham Pacts," which supported the 
construction of the so-called "Cotton Road," conceived as an alternative 
to the Silk Road. This route was supposed to unite India and Pakistan, 
pass through the Persian Gulf and Saudi Arabia, and, with the 
involvement of Israel, have its terminal in the port of Haifa, serving 
as a hub on the Mediterranean and providing access to the European market.

https://www.ucadi.org/2026/05/23/medio-oriente-i-possibili-scenari/
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