A-Infos (en) France, Monde Libertaire - The February 2026 floods on the Atlantic coast of France: no "historic" floods, but a disastrous occupation of space (ca, de, fr, it, pt, tr)[machine translation]

The floods of the second half of February 2026 on the Atlantic coast of 
France severely impacted the population. The mainstream media, driven by 
a politics of dramatization and fear, bombarded us with sensationalist 
phrases ("historic," "never seen before," "unprecedented!"), often 
lazily extracted from the usual vox pop interviews or the simplistic 
pronouncements of a few pseudo-experts, to the detriment of in-depth 
analysis. But what is the reality now that the floodwaters are slowly 
receding? Flood records have not been broken. Two terminological 
clarifications are necessary: a flood should not be confused with an 
inundation. The former is a strictly hydrological phenomenon (the 
overflowing of a watercourse beyond its "minor channel," it being 
understood that the distinction between "minor channel" and "major 
channel" is subject to debate). The second is its human impact, with the 
associated damage. We must also be wary of misinterpretations. A 
100-year flood, for example, is not one that occurs every 100 years, as 
it represents a probability of recurrence over a period of about 100 
years; in other words, two 100-year floods can occur within a decade and 
not in subsequent decades.

The recent publication of the AMRL (Rhône-Loire Meteorological 
Association) bulletin allows us to take stock of the situation thanks to 
precise historical and numerical data. Contrary to what some have 
suggested or implied, the floods did not break records in the lower 
Loire and lower Garonne basins during the month in question.

The Loire River reached 5.98 m at Montjean (downstream from Angers) on 
February 22 (compared to 6.45 m in December 1982) and 8.1 m at Nantes on 
February 20 (compared to 8.6 m in January 1982). The Charente River 
reached 6.57 m at Saintes on February 21 (compared to 6.84 m in December 
1982). The Garonne River reached 9.86 m at La Réole (downstream from 
Marmande) on February 14 (compared to 10.81 m in February 1952). The 
Dordogne River reached 6.35 m at Libourne on February 19 (compared to 
6.36 m in December 1999). The 1930 flood still holds the record for the 
Garonne River and its right-bank tributaries (originating in the Massif 
Central).

In the Garonne basin, and therefore the Gironde basin, the scale of the 
flooding is due to the simultaneous arrival of two rain-bearing waves, 
one coming from its Pyrenean section, the other from its section 
occupied by the Massif Central. High tidal coefficients and ocean 
swells, which slowed the flow of the rivers, exacerbated the flooding.

The rapid succession of storms (Nils on February 11-12, 2026, Oriana on 
February 13-14, Pedro on February 18-19) and the increasing frequency of 
floods give the impression of a recent acceleration of these phenomena, 
but caution is necessary because, to be rigorous, reliable data spanning 
at least two centuries, or even more, is required (hence the importance 
of paleoclimatology, which is admittedly a delicate field given the 
difficulty of reconstructing past weather patterns).

Indeed, as we will see later, the weather is not fixed and is constantly 
evolving. Its analysis, which involves theorizing and modeling at the 
risk of abstraction, is subject to ongoing scientific debate (the 
concept of the "Norwegian disturbance" dates back to 1922, Rossby 
proposed his wave theory in 1939, and the concept of the "polar front," 
adopted in France around the same time, has recently been re-examined).

Land use now ill-suited to the climate.

The assessment of the "Atlantic" floods of February 2026 covers two 
related fields: the meteorological phenomenon, and the floods as 
consequences for populations. It is nevertheless necessary to 
distinguish between them for the sake of analysis, but without 
forgetting the relationship between the two.

The enormous Loire River floods of May-June 1856 prompted the Napoleonic 
authorities of the time to undertake a vast protection plan based on 
dikes, which continued for years, and whose legitimacy was reinforced by 
the massive flood of September-October 1866.

Humanity is well acquainted with the two geo-historically used methods 
for countering floods: either the watercourse is constrained (dikes, 
elimination of meanders, straightening; for example, in the Nagoya plain 
in Japan with the "ceiling rivers"); Alternatively, it can be spread out 
as much as possible (few or no dikes, spillway areas, maintenance of 
backwaters; as in the Kanto Plain, also in Japan). The Saint-Simonian 
engineers of Napoleon III therefore chose the first method on the Loire, 
which was also subsequently applied to the Rhône (although the 
meteorological conditions there are significantly different).

While this approach may have been logical at the time, it is no longer 
the case today, where radical changes in land use have completely 
altered the situation. Population growth along the Loire and Garonne 
rivers and their tributaries, as well as other rivers like the Sèvre 
Niortaise and the Charente, has resulted in an expansion of urbanized 
areas (housing developments, industrial zones, commercial zones, etc.). 
The resulting soil sealing, along with changes in farming practices (the 
decline of hedgerows, the formation of plow pans, etc.), alters water 
runoff. Water is either concentrated and accelerated, then spread out 
over the surface, with less penetration into the soil, which is quickly 
saturated.

The frenzy of hastily issued building permits, disregarding risk 
protection plans, is compounded by a widespread loss of historical 
awareness (new generations of suburban residents lack the flood 
knowledge of their local grandparents). This can be explained by the 
pursuit of short-term profit and, in the not-too-distant future, 
municipal re-election. It fosters architecture that completely ignores 
hydraulic risk (absence of pilings, unsuitable materials, poor design of 
basements or upper floors, etc.). All of this leads to more intense 
flooding under similar weather conditions, not necessarily worse than in 
the past, and even less severe, as was the case in February 2026.

Soil sealing, a sensitive issue:

The question of soil sealing through concreting or paving is a sensitive 
issue. It should not be considered in isolation from other factors, 
particularly agricultural practices or the poor maintenance of dikes, 
for which the State has withdrawn its support to municipalities that 
often rely on their neighbors or lack the resources to act. Given the 
stakes and the stakeholders involvedthose who have an interest in 
downplaying the phenomenon or, conversely, in dramatizing itit is not 
surprising, but nonetheless problematic, that more or less fanciful 
figures circulate on this subject.

A 2010 study by the Ministry of Agriculture, devoted to "the increase in 
artificialized land over the past two years," estimated that "at this 
rate, it represents one department every seven years." Good heavens. But 
the sentence in question must be taken in its entirety and read 
correctly: it clearly states "at this rate," meaning that it is a 
hypothetical projection into the future. Environmentalists and 
collapsologists keen on the apocalypse deliberately forget this detail 
which changes everything.

The sentence also presents another problem: what constitutes the area of 
"a department"? Which should we choose: the Gironde (10,000 km²) or the 
Territoire de Belfort (609 km²), a difference of more than double? 
Should we use the average or the median? Nothing is specified; ambiguity 
prevails. This is the work of the "experts," which are seized upon by 
commentators with biased intentions.

This rough estimate was publicized by former Minister of Ecology 
François de Rugy, who, regarding soil sealing, repeated in 2016 the 
assertion of "every seven years," without specifying "at this rate." The 
projection is forgotten; it becomes fact. It is then interpreted 
haphazardly by various stakeholders: "every six years" according to Le 
Figaro on May 31, 2017, "every five years" according to the Courrier des 
maires on January 25, 2019, "every eight years" according to Consofutur 
on February 24, 2019, or even "seven departments every thirty years" 
according to L'Express on April 15, 2015. Who can top that? At this 
pseudo-intellectual auction, demagogues and doomsayers jostle for position.

However, following a growing awareness and various measures culminating 
in France with the ZAN law of July 2023, this pace has been... slowing 
down since 2010 (Agreste, 2025), therefore already during the time of 
the Minister of Ecology. It even fell below the 200 km² threshold in 
2023. That's still too much, certainly, but the trend is downward.
Invoking the conditional and the "if" to transform them into near 
certainty is indeed the favorite tactic of fearmongers, but it's not 
"the truth." In reality, defining and measuring land artificialization 
is not straightforward (Cybergéo, September 22, 2020; Bocquet, 2019).

Throwing around figures on a macro scale (in accordance with the ruling 
rhetoric on "globalization") without taking into account each local 
situation is more than an approximation; it's a way of masking 
responsibilities here and now, not there or in a century. Building a 
parking lot in a mid-mountain village does not have the same impact as 
in the suburbs of Bordeaux. Conversely, the issue of building permits 
points to a broader dynamic that is difficult to counter if capitalist 
logic is not challenged, and not to some original sin of humankind 
obsessed with building.

The "oceanic floods"

The public and the media have become accustomed to focusing on floods in 
the Mediterranean region (Vaison-la-Romaine, Nîmes, Ardèche, etc.). The 
Xynthia disaster in the Vendée (February 27-28, 2010) has even gradually 
faded from memory because it so clearly called into question the 
incompetence of local elected officials and the impotence of the prefect 
(Critical Dictionary of the Anthropocene, 2020). The possibility of 
flooding on the Atlantic coast of mainland France has been forgotten by 
the collective memory, even though recent events have brought it back 
into focus.

The rainfall that fell in February on the Atlantic coast is within the 
normal climatological order. "Unlike storm surges, which are limited to 
a small area, and Mediterranean floods, which often correspond to a 
regional area, oceanic floods always affect a wider area" (AMRL #230). 
The region, subject to atmospheric circulation flowing from west to 
east, is characterized by "autumn and winter[which]are the two rainiest 
seasons" (Pinchemel, La France, milieux naturels, 1992, p. 83).

Its weather patterns also experience "events," or "paroxysmal, abrupt 
manifestations of 'normal' climatic variations masked by average data" 
(ibid., p. 89). "Abnormally dry or completely rotten summers, and harsh 
winters punctuate a climatic history that bears little relation to 
average climatic data. The repercussions on the lives of the French and 
the French economy are significant, despite the country's high level of 
technological development. This is because infrastructure of all kinds, 
protective measures designed for 'average' conditions, or the moderate 
variations of a temperate climate, cannot withstand excessive and 
prolonged anomalies." (...) Monthly averages or totals only provide a 
very distant picture of climatic reality" (ibid., p. 90).

Variations in the functioning of the macroclimatic system are also 
noted. The Loire River floods of 1846, 1856, 1866, and 1907 were largely 
influenced upstream by Mediterranean meteorological phenomena, while 
those of 1910, 1922, and 2026, which occurred in winter, were more of 
Atlantic origin. In fact, the entire question of the modification of 
atmospheric circulation is being raised over a timescale of several 
decades. To believe that this circulation is fixed and constantly 
changing is an error akin to the one that rejects the theory of evolution.

Similarly, speaking of an "Azores High" or a "Genoa Low" is a misnomer, 
as the air is constantly moving and unstable. An anticyclonic or 
cyclonic (low-pressure) system does not remain stationary, nor in the 
same place. This is a convenient abstract simplification for 
representation and understanding, but not of the actual phenomenon 
itself. Analysis of British naval logbooks by Dennis Wheeler (2010) 
shows significant variability in the North Atlantic atmospheric current 
between 1685 and 1750. The question of the origins of this change in 
atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic remains open. According 
to Météo-France, which shares the IPCC's theories regarding the role of 
the anthropogenic greenhouse effect, the storms of February 2026 are 
linked to the southward shift of the subpolar jet stream. This jet 
stream then reaches mid-latitudes, driven by extreme cold located over 
the North Pole (also known as the polar vortex). However, it's difficult 
to understand why the theory of "global warming" would give such 
importance to "cold."

According to the theory of polar mobile anticyclones (PMA), on the other 
hand, it is precisely this role of polar cold, and not the heat located 
at the Intertropical Convergence Line (also known as the meteorological 
equator), that explains this oscillation of the jet stream. This 
analysis places greater emphasis on a succession of cold air flows 
heading south, which "in turn cause, notably through cyclonic 
circulation on the leading edge of the Atlantic Meteorological Zones 
(AMZs) and above them, the advection of warm air towards the pole" 
(Géocarrefour, 75-3, 2000). This is essentially what happened in 
February 2026.

Marcel Leroux, an expert on AMUs, has also noted the continuous increase 
since the 1970s in more frequent and powerful winter intrusions of cold 
air on the eastern side of the North American continent, as well as 
their impact through more numerous storms on the western side of the 
European continent.

This is precisely what happened at the beginning of 2026 in the United 
States, where the Atlantic coast and the central plains experienced 
intense blizzards and very low temperatures (minus 6°C in Dallas, 
instead of the usual January average of +15°C; minus 30°C in Quebec and 
minus 35°C in North Dakota). Indeed, there has been an increased 
frequency of storms sweeping across the Atlantic coast of France (Klaus 
in January 2009, Benjamin in October 2025, Goretti in January 2026).

After the 1999 storm that ravaged much of France, Marcel Leroux 
concluded that, within the North Atlantic aerological unit to which 
France belongs, "the dynamics of the Atlantic Meteorological Zones 
(AMZ), due to the cooling of the Arctic[on the Canadian side], mean that 
the weather has been evolving since the 1970s towards greater violence 
and the natural meteorological risk is increasing. This is the opposite 
of the reality predicted by the supposed global warming, which must be 
taken into account in prevention programs and against the consequences 
of this harshening of the weather" (ibid., p. 261).

But the AMU theory is banned by Météo-France and the IPCC. The February 
2026 event, with a very deep low-pressure corridor between Ireland, 
Brittany, and central France, seems, however, to largely vindicate him. 
It is curious, to say the least, that discussing this hypothesis is 
taboo. Of course, resorting to insults allows the debate to be shut down 
as soon as it has begun.

Between doctrinal inertia, the comfort of existing positions, and 
submission to power (the creation of the IPCC was decided by the G7 in 
Toronto in June 1988, notably under the insistence of Margaret 
Thatcher), the explanations are numerous. At least the groundwater, 
whose degradation the media regularly lament, was largely replenished 
during this month of February in much of France.

Philippe Pelletier.

https://monde-libertaire.net/?articlen=8884
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