A-Infos (en) US, BRRN: Against the Authoritarian Advance: Fighting on the Ropes but Fighting Back (ca, de, it, pt, tr)[machine translation]

On a yearly basis Black Rose/Rosa Negra engages in a lengthy process of 
research, analysis, and debate to examine the ways that social, 
political, economic, and cultural forces are interacting to shape the 
present moment in the United States. We do this to better position 
ourselves for intervention, using information we glean to revise our 
limited term strategy, with the ever-present goal of shifting the 
balance of forces in favor of the dominated classes.
The process of creating our conjunctural analysis begins at the Local 
level and flows up through our national Federation. Early drafts of the 
document you will read below are debated and discussed in advance of our 
organization's annual convention. At this national gathering delegates 
deliver further feedback and critique, after which a final version is 
drafted and put before the organization's membership through referendum.

The following is Black Rose/Rosa Negra's conjunctural analysis for 
2025-2026.

Introduction
As revolutionaries, we work to understand our world so that we can act 
to change it more effectively. Our conjunctural analysis is our 
understanding of the main forces that are shaping the world, how they 
interact and contradict each other, and how that defines our current 
moment. It is not just a static snapshot of everything that has happened 
in the past year. It is an attempt to capture the dynamic processes that 
play out across time.

In our first conjunctural analysis in 2023, we identified several key 
contradictions that are defining this period, such as:

Mobilization without organization: People are ready to mobilize to 
protest in large numbers but they are not creating lasting organization.
Faltering neoliberalism: The hegemony of neoliberal economics is now 
over but it is not clear what will replace it.
The polycrisis: Multiple factors are driving crises with increasing 
frequency and amplitude, creating a period of overlapping "polycrisis".
Institutional crisis of legitimacy: The status quo has failed the vast 
majority of people, leading to a collapse in support for the center and 
an openness to alternatives on both the right and left, but the 
Democrats cling to a support for the centrist status quo.
Empire in decline: US global hegemony is weakening, leading to desperate 
attempts to maintain imperial power while more space opens up other 
states to act.
These points still stand, and we believe that there is a great deal of 
continuity with the current moment, but with an acceleration of 
previously noted trends and some key changes with Trump's second term.

With the first year of Trump's second term showing the growing power of 
the far-right in an increasingly destabilized world, we can highlight 
two new points that we believe are key to finding effective action in 
this moment:

White Christian nationalism in the driver's seat: An aggressive white 
Christian nationalist ideology is driving Trump's policies, but while 
the onslaught of attacks have thrown their targets off balance they are 
also beginning to provoke new resistance and also cracks in the MAGA 
coalition.
A decayed social fabric: Generations of economic and technological 
change are leading to a world where individuals are disconnected, alone, 
and alienated; creating harsh terrain for social movements but also a 
widespread yearning for community and social support.
The National Conjuncture
The return of Trump to the Oval Office has struck blows to the national 
and international order. His administration's authoritarian nationalist 
agenda has made strides in eroding the foundations of liberal democracy 
at home and degrading the so-called "rules-based order" at the 
international level, fanning the flames of compounding crises shaping 
the world capitalist system in the name of putting "America First".

Authoritarianism is on the march in the United States and beyond. 
Feeding off widespread fear, insecurity, alienation, and anger - 
symptoms of a crumbling world system facing a deep crisis of legitimacy 
- it is offering its base a set of scapegoats, violent revenge, the 
unifying vision of a mythic past, the promise of restoring "traditional 
values" and social hierarchies, a sense of national pride and 
hypermasculine, military strength.

In the US, Trump's brand of authoritarianism has taken the form of an 
unapologetic white Christian nationalism, unmasking the settler colonial 
foundation of the country's founding. His administration has converted a 
thinly veiled white supremacy into one of the central motivating forces 
of government policy, even when it conflicts with the needs of major 
capitalists.

Yet Trump is only the most dangerous and destructive player within an 
international far-right movement born out of the overlapping crises 
shaping the globe, from the ecological to the genocidal, reflecting a 
wide range of reactionary regimes in Israel, India, Italy, Hungary, 
Argentina and elsewhere.

As Trump and the far-right advance, wielding state power with brute 
force, the Democratic Party has nothing meaningful to offer. Many mass 
struggles are beginning to punch back, but more work is needed to grow 
their strength. Meanwhile, much of the organized left is oriented toward 
an "inside-outside" strategy - mainly emphasizing the "inside the state" 
side of the equation - or various flavors of political party-building.

But authoritarian times demand anti-authoritarian politics. Liberal 
calls to "defend democracy" lead us up a cul de sac. The growing threat 
of fascism will not be eliminated by defending the same system that 
created the conditions for its birth, but in fighting the far-right 
outside and against the state itself - while laying the groundwork for a 
better world.

Economy: Climbing Costs, Signs of Slump
Trump's economic policies have exacerbated the growing divide between 
labor and capital.1 His "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBBA) combines 
"the largest upward wealth transfer in American history" with cuts to 
health insurance and food assistance for the poorest people in the 
country.2 As many of the "Magnificent Seven" in Big Tech rake in record 
profits from advertising and increasing investments in Artificial 
Intelligence (AI), living and working conditions for much of the working 
class continue to deteriorate.3

This is clear in the rising cost of living. A combination of erratic 
tariff policy and the Trump regime's sweeping assault on immigrants has 
contributed to rising inflation, reflected in recent increases in 
consumer prices, especially for groceries, gas and medical care.4 
Meanwhile rents are on the rise across the country-fuelling 
record-breaking growth in homelessness-with US median rent prices 
increasing by nearly 3% in August, the highest since December 2022.5

Along with the uptick in inflation are a set of continuously worsening 
jobs figures. The unemployment rate recently hit a nearly four-year high 
of 4.3%, meaning about 7.4 million people are looking for, but cannot 
find work.6 A recent report from the Labor Department highlighted that 
weekly applications for unemployment aid spiked from 27,000 to 263,000, 
also the highest in nearly four years.7 Rising prices and sluggish job 
growth have raised speculation about a possible recession or 
"stagflation"- a mix of inflation, a stagnant economy and high 
unemployment - especially if the growing AI bubble bursts.8

The labor market is especially bleak for Black workers. While the 
overall unemployment rate hit 4.3%, it surged to 7.5% in August for 
Black workers, more than double the rate of their white counterparts 
(3.7%), with Black women disproportionately impacted.9 This stems in 
part from the Trump administration slashing federal jobs, where Black 
workers make up nearly 19% of the workforce, along with ongoing attacks 
on Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) programs.

The jobs that are being added to the economy are concentrated in 
healthcare and other industries related to social reproduction-sometimes 
called 'human services.'10 While we are likely to see continued growth 
in this area with increasing demand from an aging population, the 
"Crisis of Care" that we pointed to in our previous conjunctural 
analysis is deepening, dramatically accelerated by massive cuts made to 
Medicaid, SNAP, and other social services passed in the OBBBA, 
particularly in rural areas of the country. 11

Workers overall have a gloomy outlook on economic conditions. According 
to a recent poll, 56% of respondents said the economy is "getting 
worse".12 The majority used words like "uncertain" and "struggling" to 
describe the economy with the expectation that prices will continue to 
rise under Trump, who has done little to alleviate these fears beyond 
acknowledging their reality on the campaign trail last year. Instead, 
Trump has concentrated capital in the hands of fewer firms and families, 
including his own through corrupt crypto ventures and kickbacks.13

Outside of growth in the healthcare sector, unprecedented investment in 
AI is also serving to prop up the economy.14 In our last conjunctural 
analysis we pointed to AI as an increasingly important factor, though we 
focused mainly on its role in driving resource extraction, energy use, 
and thus climate change.15 Since then, AI has been aggressively 
integrated into our economic and social lives. The rapid expansion of AI 
data centers threatens to exacerbate the ecological crisis and raise 
utility costs, but it has also become a growing site of struggle for 
local communities seeking to prevent their construction.16

Despite the trillions of dollars being generated or invested in the AI 
arms race, its tangible impact on worker productivity has been 
dubious.17 Despite these clearly emerging limitations capital continues 
to flow to AI firms, suggesting that speculation rather than 
fundamentals are driving investment and further lending credence to the 
argument that the sector is in the midst of a bubble.18 AI firms readily 
admit the precarious economic position that they are in and despite 
protestations to the contrary, their pursuit of aggressive scaling 
strategies point to an expectation that the federal government will act 
as a backstop if and when things fall apart.19

Authoritarianism Advances
Trump and his administration learned their lesson from 2016-2020. They 
came back prepared. Since returning to office in January, with Project 
2025 program in hand, they have been on an unrelenting blitz to reshape 
society and the state: concentrating ever more power in the executive 
branch, imposing a white nationalist ideology through key cultural 
institutions, unleashing troops and ICE agents on cities across the 
country, and exerting increasing control over the federal bureaucracy.

They have carried out a series of systematic purges designed to 
transform or eliminate federal agencies, especially those that regard 
themselves as 'independent'. Beginning with the so-called 'Department of 
Government Efficiency' (DOGE) under Elon Musk - prior to his fallout 
with Trump over the summer - on through to the government shutdown, this 
regime has been on a mission to gut the administrative state and 
concentrate power in the executive branch.

But while many features of the administrative state have been hollowed 
out or hobbled, its repressive apparatus is being put on steroids. 
Trump's OBBBA provides more than $170 billion for the Department of 
Homeland Security (DHS) over the next four years, giving it a budget 
larger than most countries' militaries.20 $75 billion of this new DHS 
funding is earmarked for use by Immigration and Customs Enforcement 
(ICE) to do everything from hiring 10,000 new personnel, to constructing 
and maintaining massive migrant detention facilities. As well, tens of 
billions more is broken out for use by Customs and Border Protection 
(CBP) to further militarize the border.

The express goal of this unparalleled increase in DHS funding is the 
systematic deportation of at least 1 million people per year, fully in 
line with Trump's nativist, racist rhetoric describing migrants as 
"poisoning the blood of our country" and his calls for "mass 
deportations". 21

Since Trump's inauguration, masked ICE agents have been terrorizing 
immigrant communities across the country, raiding workplaces, fields, 
neighborhoods, immigration courts and more to meet their callous quotas. 
In turn, ICE operations have led to outbursts of popular anger and 
effective resistance, the clearest example being the combative street 
protests in Los Angeles during June 2025.22

Responding to nascent popular resistance, Trump has mobilized the 
National Guard and active duty Marines to assist ICE. While elements of 
the military have been used on very rare occasions to put down large 
scale riots in the past, their deployment in response to protests of the 
size in Los Angeles is unprecedented. A drawn out legal battle has 
ensued over the legality of the National Guard's deployment, but has 
done little to prevent the administration from expanding the practice.

In August, Trump seized control of the D.C. police force, claiming that 
crime in the city had spiraled out of control despite all evidence to 
the contrary.23 Soon after, the administration again deployed the 
National Guard and officers from other federal agencies to patrol the 
streets of the capitol.24 Trump has since threatened or moved to do the 
same in other cities, including Chicago, Memphis, Baltimore, and Oakland 
- all cities with a large Black population and Black, Democratic mayors.

The scale of escalating deportations has wreaked havoc on immigrants and 
their families, but it has proven profitable for private contractors and 
foreign governments. Billions of dollars have been doled out in US 
government contracts to private prisons, airline industries, and the 
governments of nearly a dozen countries, all reaping the profits from 
Trump's xenophobic crackdown on immigration. 25

While some capitalist sectors benefit, a greater number of businesses 
have suffered economically from ongoing attacks on the super-exploited 
workforce that they depended on. In June, leaders of the hotel and 
farming industries asked for exemptions from raids, but after a brief 
pause the administration reversed its decision, showing a greater 
allegiance to its white nationalist program than to the immediate needs 
of capital.26

Trump's authoritarian agenda, from mass deportations to concentrating 
power in the executive, has been facilitated by the reactionary majority 
on the Supreme Court. Similar to Trump's first term, all of the major 
efforts undertaken by the administration have been challenged in lower 
courts, with many now stalled by injunctions. However, while liberals 
and centrists celebrated these injunctions as victories early in 2025, 
the administration is now prevailing in nearly every case taken up by 
the Supreme Court. These include rulings clearing the way for the mass 
revocation of Temporary Protected Status, deportation of individuals to 
places other than their country of origin, and ICE's use of race, 
ethnicity, or language as "reasonable suspicion" for detentions.27

The Trump administration and its allies are also waging an ideological 
war, aimed at the influential institutions that shape and reproduce US 
society: public schools, universities, media outlets, libraries, 
museums, and research programs. As the right-wing continues to 
consolidate its hold over mass media outlets, the Trump regime is 
pushing core cultural institutions to adopt its white nativist 
ideology.28 In most cases the state has used extortion, threatening to 
withhold or slash funding, to force these institutions to comply. While 
some independently wealthy institutions like prestigious private 
universities have put up minor resistance, most have acquiesced. 
Surrender has come especially quickly in instances where universities 
have recognized the opportunity to rid themselves of troublemaking 
pro-Palestine student organizers.29

The Democratic Party, for its part, remains in disarray a full year 
after the 2024 presidential election. Until September of 2025, Democrats 
were content to "play possum" in hopes that Trump's extreme measures 
might cost Republicans in the midterm elections. However, growing unrest 
and outrage at the base of the party are driving it to take a somewhat 
more proactive approach, mainly by initiating the longest government 
shutdown in US history.30 Similar to Trump's first term, Democrats are 
again falling back on the courts as the primary mechanism to block the 
administration's agenda; a losing game as discussed above. Despite 
belated attempts to satisfy their base, the Party continues to bleed 
support and faces one of its lowest favorability ratings in decades.31

Despite some turbulence, the MAGA coalition has managed to maintain a 
tenuous unity by downplaying and managing emerging contradictions - 
though new cracks have opened in relation to Trump's refusal to release 
information about infamous predator and sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein. 
Some seized on the hope that Trump's ouster of Musk as head of DOGE in 
May 2025 would create a schism within the administration's coalition. 
But after a week of trading barbs online (including Musk implying that 
Trump is a pedophile), the confrontation ultimately fizzled without 
lasting impact. Challenges from the 'America First' faction of Trump's 
base over the administration's bombing of Iran, and to some extent over 
the genocide in Gaza, have produced only minor cracks in the coalition. 
Trump has also butted heads with the Federalist Society, a pillar of the 
legal conservative establishment, for recommending insufficiently loyal 
judicial appointees, but their relationship remains mostly intact.

One of the most significant internal divisions within the MAGA movement 
so far has come from its conspiratorial contingent.32 Trump has received 
significant public pressure for his refusal to make good on a campaign 
promise to disclose information from a federal investigation into now 
dead sexual predator Jeffrey Epstein, with whom Trump maintained 
personal ties. Trump's refusal to engage on the Epstein issue has driven 
a wedge in Republican ranks. Far-right and conspiracy-minded 
congresspeople such as Lauren Boebert and Marjorie Taylor Greene have 
been made to 'put up or shut up' in the midst of a political crisis 
related to Trump's refusal to release the so-called 'Epstein Files'. 
Ultimately, Trump was forced to concede on the issue and allow passage 
of a bill clearing the way for the release of information on Epstein. 
These growing fractures highlight Trump's status as a lame duck president.

Part of the glue that still holds much of the MAGA coalition together, 
beyond its rabid xenophobia, is its commitment to reinforcing and 
reasserting heteropatriarchy. This is most glaring in the growing number 
of right-wing attacks against trans people. In addition to a series of 
executive orders aimed at imposing a gender binary, nearly 1,000 
anti-trans bills have been introduced in state legislatures across the 
country since Trump's inauguration, targeting just about every aspect of 
trans life, including: bans on ID changes and participation in sports, 
restrictions on gender-affirming care, bathroom access, and even the 
right to publicly exist. 33

Driven by the Christian nationalist wing of the MAGA movement, this 
brutal backlash against recent gains from the queer liberation struggle 
exploits real and imagined threats to traditional gender norms by 
tapping into the fear and frustration emanating from overlapping crises 
at home and abroad.

Weaponizing fear and frustration has been a key tool in MAGA's playbook, 
a tactic readily employed in the wake of Charlie Kirk's assasination. 
Well before the alleged shooter had been identified, many of MAGA's most 
prominent voices, from the President down to the base, took to social 
media to pin the blame on the "radical left" and whip up calls for 
vengeance. Regardless of the shooter's actual motives or politics, the 
Trump administration quickly began to manipulate the moment in its 
favor, hailing Kirk as a martyr and exploiting his death as an excuse 
for escalating political persecution of its opponents, whether through 
state repression, unleashing its base on manufactured threats or 
vigilante violence.

Growing violence at home, whether politically motivated or not, is a 
reflection of growing violence abroad, with US imperialism playing a 
central role.

The International Conjuncture
The international conjuncture remains marked by the ongoing decline of 
the US empire and erosion of the 'international rules based order.' 
These trends are evident in the growing number of international 
conflicts, the rise of China and other BRICS nations, shifting 
alliances, and the spread of authoritarian nationalism, among other 
factors that have destabilized the imperial framework established by the 
US following the Second World War.

In its ham-handed attempts to reassert US global dominance, the Trump 
administration has undercut many of the institutions that have sustained 
the empire over time. The administration's sweeping cuts to federal 
programs included the dismantling of USAID, a pillar of US soft power 
that served to mask imperial interests through global humanitarian aid. 
Abandoning or undermining traditional allies and multilateral 
institutions like the World Health Organization, the administration is 
reconstructing US foreign policy to reflect its 'America First' principles.

Withdrawing from the US's longstanding role of managing global 
capitalism, Trump's nakedly nationalistic foreign policy has not shied 
away from intervening in the world. The administration's tariff policies 
have disrupted global trade and its cynical claims to being a 
peace-maker have proven to be flimsy at best. In Gaza, Israel continues 
to violate the terms of the peace deal, Russia's war in Ukraine 
continues, and Trump spent the early months of his administration 
bombing Yemen and Iran.

The Trump administration has also ratcheted up imperial pressure on 
Latin America, oppressing its opponents and assisting its allies in an 
effort to revive the "Monroe Doctrine".34 The series of attacks by the 
US military on supposed "drug trafficking" vessels carrying passengers 
off the coast of Venezuela marks a dangerous shift in imperial strategy 
in the region, where the Trump administration has threatened to retake 
the Panama Canal, increased tensions with Colombia, ramped up US 
military presence in Puerto Rico, and imposed crippling sanctions on an 
already strained Cuba facing multiple nationwide blackouts. Meanwhile, 
the Trump administration has awarded lucrative carceral contacts to 
Nayib Bukele's regime in El Salvador in support of its mass deportation 
agenda and offered an open political endorsement and bailout package for 
the right-wing government of Javier Milei in Argentina, which made gains 
in recent elections despite facing both political scandals and economic 
troubles.

Of all its adversaries, however, the US undoubtedly considers China its 
most serious imperial rival. As US hegemony declines, China has stepped 
in to claim ever more influence as a geopolitical actor. Whereas the 
G.W. Bush and Obama administrations pursued strategies of increased 
focus on and strategic cooperation with China, the first Trump 
administration initiated a radical pivot toward open imperialist 
antagonism. But while this rift might increasingly take on a political 
and military character, above all else it emerges from state competition 
over access to capital and markets with China and its BRICS alliance 
gaining ground.

The sharpest edge of the international conjuncture remains in Gaza, 
where Israel has been enabled by the US to carry on two years of 
genocidal destruction. By this point Israel has dispensed with feigned 
justifications for its actions, openly declaring that "there will never 
be a Palestinian state, this place is ours."35 Israel has also 
dramatically expanded the scope of its attacks, carrying out strikes on 
Lebanon, Qatar, Syria, Iran, and Yemen. World leaders and global 
institutions have offered little in response to Israel's ongoing 
campaign of ethnic cleansing, annexations, regional attacks, and 
violations of the "peace deal" in place in Gaza.

Israel's expanding violence in the Middle East reflects growing 
international conflict and militarism around the world. While Palestine 
and Russia's war in Ukraine have dominated headlines, the globe is 
witnessing the highest number of state-based armed conflicts it has seen 
in the last seven decades, from the devastating proxy war in Sudan to 
continuing clashes in Syria.36 Meanwhile, global military spending hit a 
record $2.7 trillion in 2024 as militarism mounts and global relations 
between states become increasingly unstable.37

A global wave of uprisings, dubbed the "Gen Z Protests" by media 
outlets, have shaken political and economic elites from Asia to the 
Americas. Fueled by deepening economic and social precarity, youth-led 
mass movements have taken to the streets in Nepal, Peru, Indonesia, 
Madagascar, Morocco, Kenya, Serbia, the Philippines, and beyond.38 In 
Bangladesh, Nepal, and most recently Madagascar, militant youth 
demonstrations have gone as far as toppling the government. Linked 
together by shared symbols of solidarity drawn from the world of anime, 
these youth-led struggles signal a significant uptick in class struggle 
from below in Asia, Africa, and the Americas.

However, much like the Arab Spring before it, many of these protests 
have succeeded in mobilizing large numbers but lack substantial 
organization, strategy or a program. In this way, while they have 
successfully ousted politicians, few durable institutions of popular 
power have been constructed  toward the end of confronting, abolishing, 
and replacing capitalist and state structures, inevitably allowing 
another ruling class faction to step in and assume control.

Resistance in the Face of Reaction: Fighting on the Back Foot, but 
Fighting Back
Resistance to Trump's authoritarian onslaught has been uneven but 
growing. Trump's rapid fire executive orders and demagogic rhetoric put 
many of his opponents on the back foot. Though slow to find its footing, 
various forms of opposition are beginning to show significant signs of 
life as Trump's approval rating hits its lowest point in his second term.

Some of the most significant flashpoints have emerged in response to 
excessive overreach from the Trump administration in major cities where 
the organized left and mass movements have more capacity and will to 
fight back. The militant protests in Los Angeles marked an important 
turning point in what was at first a muted response to Trump's return. 
The momentum from these initially spontaneous demonstrations has been 
sustained and given structure by groups such as Unión del Barrio and the 
Los Angeles Tenants Union (LATU). In particular, LATU's efforts 
highlight the potential of mass organizations capable not only of 
fighting for concessions from bosses or landlords, but of broadening the 
scope of their struggle when needed. In this way, we recognize LATU to 
be building and exercising popular power.

While LATU is demonstrating a viable path forward in the fightback 
against advancing authoritarianism, the tenant movement broadly is at a 
crossroads. Tenant unions of all types formed and/or experienced success 
during the social and economic upheaval at the height of the COVID-19 
pandemic. This included legacy tenant unions (many of which had long ago 
ossified into NGO style service projects), 'autonomous' tenant unions 
which emphasize a member-led, direct action, and independent approach, 
as well as a seemingly new form of tenant union that looks to borrow 
heavily from the staff supported playbook of contemporary labor unions. 
Though housing precarity remains a major issue in the US, the acute 
nature of the crisis during the COVID conjuncture no longer exists. This 
has left some tenant organizations struggling to retain membership and 
engage in new fights.

By far the largest response to Trump 2.0 has been the "Hands Off" and 
"No Kings" protest movements, mobilizing millions across the country in 
symbolic single-day demonstrations. No Kings is largely led by liberal 
nonprofits with a handful of labor unions and has mobilized a mostly 
white, older, and wealthier segment of the population, with calls to 
protect the very system that produced Trump and others in the global 
turn toward authoritarianism. Despite its many limitations and 
contradictions, however, No Kings has been one of the only vehicles 
capable of mobilizing a wide range of oppositional forces nationwide and 
opens opportunities for the wider left to build a broad-based struggle 
capable of stemming the rising far-right tide.

In addition to the No Kings protests, the labor movement mobilized 
national days of action on May Day and Labor Day, but its ability to 
fight back has been curtailed both by its own reticence and by a 
systematic class war from above. In March, Trump issued an executive 
order that stripped union protections from more than 1 million federal 
workers, making him the largest union buster in US history. 39The 
administration's attacks on unions signals to corporations across the 
country that it is open season on organized labor. Strikes are down 
compared to the last several years, union membership continues to 
decline, and the National Labor Relations Board has been hijacked by 
Trump appointees.

While weathering these setbacks, some segments of the labor movement are 
acting with a renewed vitality. New organizing drives have continued in 
the private sector, strikes and strike threats have yielded important 
gains, and many unions have incorporated transversal issues such as 
migrant and Palestine solidarity into their workplace and community 
struggles. As well, the small but formidable 'troublemaker' wing of the 
labor movement continues to grow, as Labor Notes gears up for what will 
be its largest ever national conference in 2026. It is likely this 
fraction will determine whether or not labor becomes a more active force 
in combating Trump's authoritarianism.

The resilience of the Palestine solidarity movement has also been 
remarkable. National conferences, recurring mass protests, and Boycott, 
Divestment, and Sanctions campaigns have all kept the genocide in 
Palestine in the spotlight and delivered critical ideological blows to 
zionism and the legitimacy of Israel's settler colonial project. This 
resilience is further illustrated by durable intermediate level 
organizations and networks emerging from the pro-Palestine struggle. In 
particular, some chapters of Healthcare Workers for Palestine have 
developed crucial linkages in and across workplaces to organize 
healthcare workers against ICE.

Balance of Forces
The balance of forces is tipped in favor of the reactionary right in 
state power, while nascent popular movements-most notably those in 
defense of migrants-are beginning to gather strength and forcibly push 
back. Trump's 'flood the zone' approach yielded success in two major 
ways: it has so far achieved many of its key objectives and has so far 
put the centrist and organized left on the back foot. Although the 
organized left is as large and well organized as it has been in a 
generation, this has not yet translated into durable, independent mass 
movements of the scale necessary to tip the balance of power. A broad 
range of new and old capital, for its part, at first skeptical of 
Trump's extreme tariff plans, has since lined up to support the 
administration's attacks on unions, massive tax cuts, deregulation, and 
protectionist favoritism for domestic firms.

In keeping with our assessments in previous conjunctural analyses, we 
find that the autonomous, street-based elements of the far-right remain 
marginal. While groups like Patriot Front, Proud Boys, Blood Tribe, and 
various so-called 'active clubs' have made a limited number of dramatic 
public appearances in the last year, their impact has been mostly 
negligible. Charlie Kirk's assassination may put a shot in the arms of 
these formations or help drive recruitment for Turning Point USA, but it 
is still too early to make any assessments of those developments.

Anti-fascist organizers active in the 2016-2018 period should continue 
to receive credit for confronting and destabilizing what was then a 
serious street-level fascist movement in its infancy. However, the 
continued demobilization of the autonomous far-right may now be driven, 
at least in part, by its members' short-term strategic and tactical 
alignment with the policies of the Trump administration.

While hardened reactionaries have made their skepticism of Trump known, 
there is no doubt that they welcome the administration's sweeping 
anti-immigrant policies and unvarnished white nativism. More than just 
passively supporting the Trump administration's turn toward a more open 
white nationalism, previously autonomous elements of the fascist right 
are now being given the unprecedented opportunity to enact their vision 
from behind a badge. The rapid expansion of DHS and ICE, new norms 
allowing federal agents to wear masks, a social media recruitment 
campaign that deploys the aesthetics and language of online fascists, as 
well as the use of aggressive and previously unseen tactics by said 
agencies, are all likely to select for ideologically driven recruits 
eager to round up and purge immigrants.

Whether this means that the roughly aligned short-term visions of the 
Trump administration and the autonomous far-right will result in the 
latter dissolving into the former is still yet to be seen-though we find 
the prospect of total consolidation between the two unlikely.

As noted above, liberals and centrists have failed to chart a path out 
of the disarray they found themselves in leading up to-and especially 
after-the 2024 presidential election. Despite recent belated attempts to 
appease its base by deliberately shutting down the government, the 
Democratic Party's crisis of legitimacy has only deepened as its 
approval rating has ebbed to one of its lowest points in decades.

Some of the more active elements of the Democratic Party base have 
mobilized street protests with varying degrees of success over the last 
year. These have included the previously mentioned "Hands Off", "No 
Kings", and Anti-Elon Musk/DOGE protests at Tesla car dealerships. While 
the latter seems to have had the most tangible material impact, each of 
these examples are firmly tethered to the Democratic Party and aligned 
NGOs, limiting their potential to develop as independent mass movements. 
Still, they represent the largest anti-Trump mobilizations thus far.

Taking a broader view, recent polls suggest that Americans' view of 
capitalism has continued to decline over the last four years, while at 
the same time their view of socialism remains at a historic high.40 
Though these kinds of polls tell us very little about how this 
diminishing or increasing support manifests materially, it does indicate 
that the continued political and social polarization in the US offers 
opportunities for intervention. Though the reactionary right is in state 
power, its ideas are far from hegemonic.

Of note is New York City mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani's surprise stand out 
campaign during the city's Democratic primary. The decisive victory of 
Mamdani, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), has 
reignited hope in electoralism for reform-minded progressives in DSA and 
beyond. A politically important post, the fixation on a mayoral office 
nonetheless reflects a scaling back of the electoral left's ambition in 
the aftermath of Bernie Sanders' failed presidential bids. While the 
extent to which Mamdami will be able to deliver on his platform is yet 
to be seen, it remains the case that concessions delivered on the basis 
of political power have time and time again proven to be fundamentally 
more vulnerable to reversal than those won and defended via combative 
class struggle from below. 41The degree that Mamdani's victory may once 
again realign the broader left's strategy toward a focus on electoralism 
is yet to be seen.

By orders of magnitude, DSA remains the largest socialist organization 
in the United States. However, the organization is beset by a seemingly 
endless series of factional disputes. This dynamic was on full display 
during the organization's 2025 national convention, where even 
anti-zionism and BDS were highly contentious issues.42 In recent years 
DSA has struggled to chart a path for itself without a Bernie Sanders 
candidacy to cohere behind. Zohran Mamdami-an actual member of DSA, 
unlike Sanders-seems to be filling that gap for the organization at 
least partially, increasing the likelihood that its strategy going 
forward will prioritize elections.

Outside of DSA, there has been noticeable growth in Leninist 
party-building groups. The decline of a particular sort of anarchist 
influence on the left after disillusionment with Occupy, the rise of 
social democratic politics with Bernie Sanders, and the search for a 
revolutionary alternative to DSA fueled in part by the Palestine 
solidarity struggle, has contributed to the growth of the Party for 
Socialism and Liberation (PSL) and the Revolutionary Communists of 
America (RCA). While even highly visible left groups like PSL claim only 
a tiny fraction of active movement organizers, giving them a relatively 
small impact on the overall balance of forces, their attempts to 
maneuver into positions of structural control within unions and social 
struggles often place the sectarian interests of their party over 
building popular power.

A new and highly dangerous development has come in the form of a 
resurgent McCarthyism, exemplified first by Senator Josh Hawley's 
semi-formal inquiries into Unión del Barrio and the PSL for their 
alleged involvement in LA's recent anti-ICE demonstrations.43 In the 
wake of Charlie Kirk's assassination, Vice President JD Vance wasted no 
time launching a bloody shirt campaign. Calling the left a "terror 
network," Vance has ominously promised to use every mechanism of state 
power available to initiate a broad crackdown on leftwing 
organizations-from NGOs to political groups.44 Most recently, Trump has 
issued an executive order designating 'antifa' a "domestic terror 
organization" and directed the Department of Justice to compile a list 
of domestic "extremist" groups", including those who espouse 
"anti-capitalism" and "radical gender ideology".45

Reflecting the assessment in our previous conjunctural analysis, we find 
that the organized left's relative frailty has left it struggling with 
the disorganizing effect of Trump's legislative and policy onslaught. At 
the same time, the organized left has also proven to be a crucial force 
in kickstarting and sustaining campaigns, including those related to the 
Palestine solidarity movement and defense of migrant communities.

Key tasks of the organized left (including organized anarchists) in the 
present include beefing up legal self-defense capabilities in 
collaboration with other left groups, building a culture of mass 
resistance to advances made by the far-right, and reproducing the 
principles and practices that define the model exemplified by LATU - a 
commitment to class independence, direct democracy, rank-and-file 
control, and direct action - within mass organizations around the 
country. As we have seen, only popular power can stand in the way of the 
rapid authoritarian advance.

If you enjoyed this read, we recommend our conjunctural analysis for 
2024-2025: Crises and Collective Action.

Notes

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/nov/03/wealth-billionaires-increase-trump
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/05/big-beautiful-transfer-of-wealth/682885/
https://www.investopedia.com/what-to-expect-from-the-magnificent-seven-in-the-second-half-of-2025-11766435
https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/11/economy/us-cpi-consumer-price-index-inflation-august
https://www.newsweek.com/map-rents-rise-us-2127390
It is important to note that the BLS issued unemployment rate does not 
include individuals who have become discouraged and stopped looking for 
work after 4 weeks.
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-a69fc3afbbebe731c29824b855e3c83f
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/market-talk-recession-stagflation-everything-204116344.html; 
Despite recent attempts by the administration to disrupt the regular 
collection and publication of economic data by BLS, working people are 
clear about the economic strain felt in their everyday lives.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/12/business/economy/black-unemployment-federal-layoffs-diversity-initiatives.html
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/healthcare-job-creation-charts-us-economy-adf2ff89
The cuts to Medicare alone are expected to increase the number of 
uninsured by 10 million. See: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61570
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-news-poll-economy-ratings-uncertain-03-09-2025/
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2025/08/18/the-number
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/27/business/economy/ai-investment-economic-growth.html
Black Rose/Rosa Negra. Conjunctural Analysis 2025: Crises and Collective 
Action. 
https://www.blackrosefed.org/conjunctural-analysis-2025-crises-and-collective-action/
https://www.npr.org/2025/10/14/nx-s1-5565147/google-ai-data-centers-growth-environment-electricity
Real-Time Population Survey (RPS), a collaboration between the Federal 
Reserve Bank of St. Louis and Vanderbilt University found a paltry 1.1% 
increase in aggregate productivity for firms that have adopted AI.
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/09/07/what-if-the-ai-stockmarket-blows-up
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/you-may-already-be-bailing-out-the-ai-business-dd67d452
https://www.salon.com/2025/07/03/ices-175-billion-windfall-trumps-mass-deportation-force-set-to-receive-military-level-funding/
https://www.c-span.org/clip/campaign-2024/donald-trump-on-illegal-immigrants-poisoning-the-blood-of-our-country/5098439
https://abcnews.go.com/US/timeline-ice-raids-sparked-la-protests-prompted-trump/story?id=122688437
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/dc-crime-data-national-guard-deployments-analysis/
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/08/declaring-a-crime-emergency-in-the-district-of-columbia/
https://abcnews.go.com/US/top-private-prison-companies-profits-amid-administrations-immigration/story?id=124591009; 
https://ig.ft.com/us-deportation-flights/; 
https://www.cfr.org/article/what-are-third-country-deportations-and-why-trump-using-them
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jun/17/ice-raids-farms-hotels-trump
https://www.reuters.com/legal/major-cases-involving-trump-before-us-supreme-court-2025-06-09/
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/ending-radical-indoctrination-in-k-12-schooling/; 
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/sep/14/rightwing-news-media-journalism
https://www.dailycal.org/news/campus/uc-berkeley-turns-over-personal-information-of-more-than-150-students-and-staff-to-federal/article_a4aad3e1-bbba-42cc-92d7-a7964d9641c5.html
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/government-shutdown-timeline-senators-40-day-impasse-sudden/
https://news.gallup.com/poll/24655/party-images.aspx
https://threewayfight.org/epsteins-ghost-and-the-many-sides-of-conspiracism/
https://translegislation.com/; 
https://truthout.org/articles/more-than-850-anti-lgbtq-bills-filed-so-far-in-2025-the-most-in-us-history/
 https://tomdispatch.com/the-trump-corollary/
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-signs-west-bank-settlement-expansion-plan-rules-out-palestinian-state-2025-09-11/
https://www.prio.org/news/3616
https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/09/1165809
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/oct/12/the-guardian-view-on-gen-z-protests-these-movements-share-more-than-an-interest-in-anime
https://www.epi.org/blog/trump-is-the-biggest-union-buster-in-u-s-history-more-than-1-million-federal-workers-collective-bargaining-rights-are-at-risk/
https://news.gallup.com/poll/694835/image-capitalism-slips.aspx
https://truthout.org/articles/the-lure-of-elections-from-political-power-to-popular-power/
See the following tweet for DSA convention voting tallies on resolution 
to affirm DSA's commitment to anti-zionism: 
https://x.com/GoodVibePolitik/status/1954581357302042942?s=20
https://www.hawley.senate.gov/hawley-launches-investigation-into-organizations-bankrolling-la-riots/
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/15/vance-white-house-promise-to-crack-down-on-radical-left-lunatics-00564766
https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/doj-terrorism-charges-trump-antifa-executive-order/; 
https://www.kenklippenstein.com/p/leak-fbi-list-of-extremists-is-coming

https://www.blackrosefed.org/conjunctural-analysis-2025-2026/
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