A-Infos (en) Italy, FAI, Umanita Nova #18-25 - The Specter of Abstention. Electoral Ebbs and Flows from 2008 to 2022 (ca, de, it, pt, tr)[machine translation]

Codice Rosso, an online magazine, has published research by McSilvan 
dedicated to the analysis of electoral flows from 2008 to 2022 with 
particular attention to the working class and low-income earners. This 
research, to the extent that it offers us a real cross-section of the 
political orientation of the exploited classes and the popular classes 
of today's Italy, is a denial of the conception, supported by the 
authoritarian currents of the workers' movement in the wake of the 
teachings of Karl Marx and Frederich Engels, that the development of 
large-scale industry would have pushed the proletariat to first 
constitute itself as a class and then to give life to an autonomous 
political party that, once it had won the electoral vote and based on 
the fact that the proletariat constitutes the largest class in society, 
would have gradually conquered political power through free elections.

Regardless of this research, historical experience teaches us that 
participation in elections has represented a source of decadence and 
division of parties that referred to the working class and the concepts 
of Marx and Engels, since the first years of the constitution of these 
parties and their participation in electoral competitions.

Today in the most advanced capitalist states there does not exist, as 
there existed in Germany on the eve of the First World War (1914), a 
party that represents the working class or at least a large part of it 
and that is close to conquering power through elections. The parties 
close to the interests of the working class are reduced to telephone 
prefix percentages, while those closest to conquering power make the 
interests and ideologies of the privileged classes their own. Indeed, 
their greater or lesser proximity to power is determined by this acceptance.

On the other hand, migrations have meant that in developed countries a 
significant part of the working class is deprived of the right to vote: 
this obviously causes a fracture that also has repercussions at the 
political level, not only by making it difficult for the non-native 
component of the working class to participate in the process of forming 
a class party, but above all because it develops within the native 
component the illusion of enjoying a privileged status, in addition to 
developing reactionary behaviors when this status proves to be 
non-existent. A rebirth of the workers' movement as a political, social 
and cultural subject cannot therefore ignore a recomposition of the 
class unity between these two components divided by place of birth and 
citizenship recognized by the structure of political domination, the state.

With regard to Italy in particular, the phenomenon of abstention has 
reached such a level that the author of the research defines as "a 
worrying symptom of the crisis of democratic representation". Precisely 
by addressing the issue of abstention, all the limitations of operations 
of this type emerge and, ultimately, their ideological nature: the 
increase in abstention between 2008 and 2022 is estimated at 17 
percentage points, i.e. 17 percent, compared to the percentage trend of 
the parties. Except that the percentages of the parties are calculated 
on the number of voters, while those of abstention are calculated on 
those entitled to vote; furthermore, the percentage should be calculated 
on the difference in absolute numbers. To explain better: abstention 
goes from 9 million and 188 thousand abstainers in 2008 to 16 million 
and 646 thousand in 2022, with an increase of 7 million and 458 thousand 
abstainers. The percentage increase was therefore 81.18%. We are 
therefore faced with an ideological construction that, on the one hand, 
gives a negative evaluation of abstention, on the other manipulates the 
data in order to diminish its real impact.

Even the description of the electoral flows poses problems of coherence 
with the real data. For convenience, we use the data provided by the 
Ministry of the Interior for the elections to the Chamber of Deputies, 
relating to all of Italy excluding Valle D'Aosta.

McSilvan argues that "Considering the clear victory of the PdL in 2008 
and these previous trends, it is reasonable to estimate that the two 
main parties for the working-class electorate at the national level 
were": the first party Popolo della Libertà, the second party Partito 
Democratico. These are two new formations: the first born from the 
merger between Forza Italia and Alleanza Nazionale, the second from the 
merger of the political formations united in the electoral coalition of 
the Ulivo. Well, these formations have substantially confirmed the votes 
obtained in 2006 by the organizations from which they arose, with this 
difference: the People of Freedom lost 126 thousand votes, with a loss 
of 0.92%; the PD gained 164 thousand votes, with a growth of 1.38%; 
abstentions increased by 1 million and 468 thousand units, with a 
percentage increase of 19.07%. Even the right-wing coalition led by 
Silvio Berlusconi lost, in the comparison between the two elections, 1 
million and 913 thousand votes, with a percentage loss of 10.08%. 
Therefore, considering that in 2008 the real data show that the PdL lost 
votes, while the PD increased them, it is reasonable to assume that the 
Democratic Party did not lose its traditional areas of influence, and 
the Party of Freedom did not conquer them.

Codice Rosso's research also uses estimates for the 2013 elections, 
developed by the author, who comments as follows: "The analysis of the 
flows shows how the M5S attracted votes across the board, drawing from 
the PD, PDL and, significantly, from abstention". In reality, the 
analysis of the electoral flows shows something different: the three 
most voted parties in 2008 (PD, PDL and Lega Nord) lost a total of 11 
million 380 thousand votes, which were only partially intercepted by the 
5 Star Movement, which stopped at 8 million 691 thousand votes; an 
excellent result for a list that is presenting itself for the first 
time. Abstentions, on the other hand, rose by 3 million 935 thousand 
units, reaching a total figure of 11 million 634 thousand, making 
abstention the leading party. Therefore, even admitting that there were 
flows from the abstention area towards the M5S, these flows were 
compensated by much higher incoming flows; flows to which the suicide of 
Rifondazione Comunista made a significant contribution. Finally, the 
debut of Fratelli d'Italia should be noted, obtaining 666,765 votes, 
equal to 1.96 of the valid votes.

For the 2018 political elections, some data is provided, but once again 
it is based on estimates. The work of the Cattaneo Institute on 
electoral flows is cited, which is summarized as follows: "The League 
emerges as a "catch-all" party, capable of attracting working-class 
votes from various backgrounds, including former PD and M5S voters, 
especially in the Northern regions, confirming and expanding the trend 
already observed in 2006. The M5S, while losing votes to the League in 
the North, remains very strong in the South, where it intercepts social 
distress. The PD, on the other hand, suffers heavy losses to both." It 
is a bold statement, given that the title given by the Cattaneo 
Institute is different: "The PD gives up votes to the M5s and Leu in the 
Center-North, the League attracts five-star votes in the South, a 
"catch-all" M5s". There is no reference to the working-class vote in the 
title of the Cattaneo Institute, but there is none in the research 
either. Speaking of Brescia, for example, a traditional stronghold of 
the FIOM, the Institute limits itself to saying that the League has 
proven to be particularly strong and attractive. Once again, the 
analysis of absolute votes can help us understand the long-term 
dynamics. If it is true that the lists of the right-wing coalition 
increased their votes by 2 million 228 thousand overall, that this 
result is driven by the success of the Northern League, which tripled 
its 2013 votes, and of Brothers of Italy, which doubled them, and that 
these results largely compensate for the drop in votes of Forza Italia 
(which abandoned the name of People of Freedom) of about a third; 
however, the votes of the coalition, with 12 million 152 thousand 
voters, remain below the 17 million 84 thousand votes obtained in 2008. 
Therefore, if in 2008 there was no evidence that the right-wing 
political forces had won the workers' vote, this can also be assumed for 
2018, in which the right-wing forces overall remain below this result.

The evaluation of the 2022 elections also suffers from a lack of 
verification of the real data. The "clear victory of the center-right 
coalition", if confirmed by the number of deputies elected, is much less 
so by the number of votes received, which are only 152 thousand more 
than in 2018. If we consider the variations in absolute votes, we see 
that the growth of Fratelli d'Italia barely compensates for the collapse 
of Forza Italia and Lega Nord, which see their electorate halved; 
overall, the coalition, even in 2022, remains below the 2008 result, a 
figure that demonstrates a certain distrust of the electorate in the 
coalition, even under Meloni. The abstention figure is significant, 
reaching the figure of 16 million and 608 thousand votes, with a growth 
of 32%. It should be understood why this shift to the right, which does 
not emerge from the overall result, would occur in the workers' vote. 
The only possible explanation is that right-leaning workers, who have 
always existed, are the only ones who continue to vote, while those with 
a greater class consciousness do not see their aspirations for greater 
solidarity and social justice reflected in any of the competing 
electoral lists. Therefore, the workers' "turn to the right" would only 
be the result of the researcher's distorted lenses, which would make him 
incapable of grasping the political value of abstention.

The sample used deserves another reflection. The manufacturing working 
class is in a certain way the heir of the mass worker so dear to the 
school of class composition. Today that working class represents a 
privileged sector, both, as we mentioned at the beginning, with respect 
to that part of the working class that does not enjoy the political 
rights of this state, and with respect to those workers who are in fact 
employees of this same manufacturing industry, but with contracts that 
do not make them comparable to direct employees. Furthermore, the 
manufacturing industry sector does not include construction, transport 
and logistics, the oil industry, the entire primary sector. It is 
therefore understandable that part of this working class considers 
itself privileged compared to those who come from other countries and 
compared to those who have a less secure contract and that, to maintain 
these privileges, it sees in these workers a competitor to defend itself 
from, and turns to those who promise to defend all possible and 
imaginable privileges.

This research, however interesting, appears to be an ad hoc work to 
belittle the phenomenon of abstention by giving a distorted image of it, 
and at the same time offer suggestions to new electoral cartels. In 
doing so, however, the two most important facts are lost: that the 
privileged classes find their expression in a fascist party, that the 
exploited classes no longer have faith in the electoral method and are 
looking for another more effective method, which can only be the method 
of abstentionism, self-organization, direct action, the anarchist method.

Tiziano Antonelli

https://umanitanova.org/lo-spettro-dellastensione-flussi-e-riflussi-elettorali-dal-2008-al-2022/
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